Veres Rivne 1:1 Zoria Luhansk: xG & match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 14:30

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Match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Veres Rivne Home 0.87 xG

Zoria Luhansk Away 1.08 xG

11 The chances were evenly matched

Zoria Luhansk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Zoria Luhansk's attack: 1.08 xG against 1.61 projected (−0.53). Veres Rivne produced 0.87 xG against 1.17 projected (−0.30).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Veres Rivne: 25%
Draw: 29% What happened
Zoria Luhansk: 46%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Veres Rivne 1.17 0.87 -0.30

Zoria Luhansk 1.61 1.08 -0.53

Zoria Luhansk produced 0.53 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Veres Rivne Zoria Luhansk

Shots: 8; 13
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 6; 4
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.08

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Veres Rivne

1.12 xG created 2.22 xGA

D 0.54 created, 0.80 conceded against Rukh Lviv
L 2.24 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
L 1.43 created, 2.38 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
L 0.20 created, 3.80 conceded against Metalist 1925
L 1.63 created, 2.77 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
D 0.68 created, 2.05 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi

Zoria Luhansk

1.42 xG created 1.19 xGA

W 1.11 created, 0.75 conceded against Rukh Lviv
D 0.66 created, 1.27 conceded against Metalist 1925
W 2.44 created, 0.84 conceded against Oleksandria
D 1.01 created, 1.64 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
W 2.46 created, 0.78 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
W 0.83 created, 1.87 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Veres Rivne: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Veres Rivne against Zoria Luhansk before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.80	+9.3%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	2.00	+7.8%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.30	+4.6%	Won
Zoria Luhansk to win	2.20	+1.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Veres Rivne	24.9%	31.3%	−6.4 pp	4.01
Draw	28.9%	27.7%	+1.2 pp	3.46
Zoria Luhansk	46.2%	40.9%	+5.2 pp	2.17

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.7%	51.5%	+9.2 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.3%	48.5%	−9.2 pp	2.54
Over 1.5 goals	80.5%	72.3%	+8.1 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.5%	27.7%	−8.1 pp	5.12
Over 2.5 goals	53.9%	47.4%	+6.5 pp	1.86
Under 2.5 goals	46.1%	52.6%	−6.5 pp	2.17

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Veres Rivne sample: 20 matches
Zoria Luhansk sample: 20 matches
Computed: 18 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 18 minutes before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.