Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 14:00
26d 20h to kick-offDjurgårdens IF – Degerfors IF
Model updated 5 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Djurgårdens IF
- 56%
- Draw
- 25%
- Degerfors IF
- 18%
| Djurgårdens IF | Draw | Degerfors IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.78 | 3.94 | 5.41 |
- Total goals
- 3.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Djurgårdens IF
56% Djurgårdens IF to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 10th
- Djurgårdens IF attack v Degerfors IF defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 15th
- Djurgårdens IF defence v Degerfors IF attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.48 vs -0.06
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.95 – 1.11
- Djurgårdens IF v Degerfors IF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Djurgårdens IF | Degerfors IF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.30 · 2nd | 1.26 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.15 · 2nd | 1.76 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.16 · 2nd | -0.51 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.05 · 2nd | 1.09 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.48 | -0.06 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Djurgårdens IF clean sheet
- 30%
- Djurgårdens IF 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.3%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Djurgårdens IF sample
- 20 matches
- Degerfors IF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Djurgårdens IF
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Degerfors IF
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.