Monday, 19/10/2026 at 19:00
15d 17h to kick-offDegerfors IF – Kalmar FF
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Degerfors IF
- 37%
- Draw
- 29%
- Kalmar FF
- 35%
| Degerfors IF | Draw | Kalmar FF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.72 | 3.49 | 2.90 |
- Total goals
- 2.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Degerfors IF to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 8th
- Degerfors IF attack v Kalmar FF defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 12th
- Degerfors IF defence v Kalmar FF attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.06 vs -1.15
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.51 – 1.46
- Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Degerfors IF | Kalmar FF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.26 · 15th | (better) 1.31 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 1.76 · 10th | (better) 1.74 · 9th |
| xGD / match | -0.51 · 13th | (better) -0.43 · 11th |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 12th | (better) 1.21 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.06 | -1.15 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Degerfors IF clean sheet
- 21%
- Degerfors IF 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 9.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Degerfors IF sample
- 20 matches
- Kalmar FF sample
- 17 matches
- Home xG sample · Degerfors IF
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Kalmar FF
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.