GAIS 4:0 IF Brommapojkarna: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

GAIS Home 2.99 xG

IF Brommapojkarna Away 1.13 xG

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

GAIS were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was GAIS's attack: 2.99 xG against 2.03 projected (+0.96).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

GAIS: 56% What happened
Draw: 25%
IF Brommapojkarna: 20%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

GAIS 2.03 2.99 +0.96

IF Brommapojkarna 1.21 1.13 -0.08

GAIS produced 0.96 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

GAIS IF Brommapojkarna

Shots: 18; 9
On target: 9; 3
Inside the box: 9; 5
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

GAIS

2.04 xG created 1.62 xGA

W 1.83 created, 2.21 conceded against IF Elfsborg
L 1.24 created, 1.92 conceded against AIK
D 2.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Halmstads BK
W 3.81 created, 0.90 conceded against Halmstads BK
L 1.35 created, 0.22 conceded against Malmö FF
L 1.01 created, 3.00 conceded against Hammarby IF

IF Brommapojkarna

1.50 xG created 2.31 xGA

L 0.49 created, 3.80 conceded against IFK Göteborg
D 0.80 created, 2.32 conceded against Hammarby IF
L 1.73 created, 3.22 conceded against Malmö FF
D 0.55 created, 2.16 conceded against IK Sirius
W 3.40 created, 1.29 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 2.05 created, 1.08 conceded against Degerfors IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

GAIS: 1 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on GAIS against IF Brommapojkarna before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals	3.25	+13.3%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	+12.1%	Won
Both teams to score	1.67	+10.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+6.2%	Won
IF Brommapojkarna to score	1.44	+5.7%	Lost
GAIS 2+ goals	1.67	+3.9%	Won
IF Brommapojkarna to win	5.25	+3.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
GAIS	55.6%	57.2%	−1.6 pp	1.80
Draw	24.7%	24.8%	−0.1 pp	4.05
IF Brommapojkarna	19.7%	18.0%	+1.8 pp	5.07

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
GAIS to score	88.8%	84.2%	+4.6 pp	1.13
GAIS not to score	11.2%	15.8%	−4.6 pp	8.95
IF Brommapojkarna to score	73.2%	64.5%	+8.7 pp	1.37
IF Brommapojkarna not to score	26.8%	35.5%	−8.7 pp	3.73
Both teams to score	66.3%	55.7%	+10.6 pp	1.51
Both teams not to score	33.7%	44.3%	−10.6 pp	2.97
GAIS 2+ goals	62.3%	55.7%	+6.6 pp	1.60
GAIS at most 1 goal	37.7%	44.3%	−6.6 pp	2.65
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals	34.8%	29.1%	+5.8 pp	2.87
IF Brommapojkarna at most 1 goal	65.1%	70.9%	−5.8 pp	1.53
Over 1.5 goals	86.9%	76.6%	+10.3 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.1%	23.4%	−10.3 pp	7.65
Over 2.5 goals	64.9%	54.6%	+10.4 pp	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	35.1%	45.4%	−10.4 pp	2.85

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
GAIS sample: 20 matches
IF Brommapojkarna sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.