Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 14:00
20d 5h to kick-offGAIS – IFK Göteborg
Model updated 5 October, 09:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- GAIS
- 42%
- Draw
- 26%
- IFK Göteborg
- 32%
| GAIS | Draw | IFK Göteborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.37 | 3.83 | 3.16 |
- Total goals
- 3.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans GAIS
42% GAIS to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 9th
- GAIS attack v IFK Göteborg defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 3rd
- GAIS defence v IFK Göteborg attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.58 vs +0.66
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.83 – 1.59
- GAIS v IFK Göteborg
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | GAIS | IFK Göteborg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.75 · 7th | (better) 1.95 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.34 · 4th | 1.63 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.41 · 6th | +0.32 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.61 · 6th | 1.60 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.58 | (better) +0.66 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- GAIS clean sheet
- 18%
- GAIS 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.2%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 8.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- GAIS sample
- 20 matches
- IFK Göteborg sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · GAIS
- 9 matches
- Away xG sample · IFK Göteborg
- 8 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.