IF Brommapojkarna 0:1 IFK Göteborg: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

IF Brommapojkarna Home 1.24 xG

IFK Göteborg Away 2.38 xG

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

IFK Göteborg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was IFK Göteborg's attack: 2.38 xG against 1.81 projected (+0.57). IF Brommapojkarna produced 1.24 xG against 1.61 projected (−0.37).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IF Brommapojkarna: 33%
Draw: 26%
IFK Göteborg: 41% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1.61 1.24 -0.37

IFK Göteborg 1.81 2.38 +0.57

IFK Göteborg produced 0.57 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IF Brommapojkarna IFK Göteborg

Shots: 10; 17
On target: 1; 3
Inside the box: 6; 14
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.61 xG created 1.76 xGA

D 0.55 created, 2.16 conceded against IK Sirius
W 3.40 created, 1.29 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 2.05 created, 1.08 conceded against Degerfors IF
L 1.13 created, 2.99 conceded against GAIS
W 1.51 created, 0.98 conceded against IF Elfsborg
L 1.03 created, 2.07 conceded against Hammarby IF

IFK Göteborg

1.95 xG created 1.66 xGA

L 1.85 created, 2.97 conceded against IK Sirius
W 2.21 created, 1.92 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 2.71 created, 0.99 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.13 created, 1.69 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 2.01 created, 0.98 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.76 created, 1.42 conceded against Halmstads BK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IF Brommapojkarna: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IF Brommapojkarna against IFK Göteborg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+16.6%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.65	+13.3%	Lost
IFK Göteborg 2+ goals	2.00	+12.0%	Lost
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals	2.25	+11.4%	Lost
IF Brommapojkarna to score	1.29	+6.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+5.2%	Lost
IFK Göteborg to score	1.20	+3.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Brommapojkarna	32.6%	33.6%	−1.1 pp	3.07
Draw	26.1%	25.4%	+0.7 pp	3.83
IFK Göteborg	41.3%	40.9%	+0.4 pp	2.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Brommapojkarna to score	82.5%	73.1%	+9.4 pp	1.21
IF Brommapojkarna not to score	17.5%	26.9%	−9.4 pp	5.73
IFK Göteborg to score	85.9%	78.3%	+7.6 pp	1.16
IFK Göteborg not to score	14.1%	21.7%	−7.6 pp	7.12
Both teams to score	72.2%	57.7%	+14.6 pp	1.38
Both teams not to score	27.8%	42.3%	−14.6 pp	3.60
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals	49.5%	41.1%	+8.4 pp	2.02
IF Brommapojkarna at most 1 goal	50.5%	58.9%	−8.4 pp	1.98
IFK Göteborg 2+ goals	56.0%	46.3%	+9.7 pp	1.79
IFK Göteborg at most 1 goal	44.0%	53.7%	−9.7 pp	2.27
Over 1.5 goals	89.0%	79.2%	+9.8 pp	1.12
Under 1.5 goals	11.0%	20.8%	−9.8 pp	9.06
Over 2.5 goals	68.7%	57.1%	+11.5 pp	1.46
Under 2.5 goals	31.3%	42.9%	−11.5 pp	3.19

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IF Brommapojkarna sample: 20 matches
IFK Göteborg sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.