Halmstads BK 1:0 Kalmar FF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:30

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Halmstads BK Home 1.31 xG

Kalmar FF Away 1.94 xG

10 The result went against the chances

Kalmar FF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. Halmstads BK won 1–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Halmstads BK: 28% What happened
Draw: 26%
Kalmar FF: 46%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Halmstads BK 1.45 1.31 -0.14

Kalmar FF 1.86 1.94 +0.08

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Halmstads BK Kalmar FF

Shots: 14; 15
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 8; 8
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Halmstads BK

1.39 xG created 2.69 xGA

L 1.12 created, 1.40 conceded against BK Häcken
D 1.49 created, 2.97 conceded against GAIS
L 0.97 created, 3.10 conceded against IK Sirius
L 0.90 created, 3.81 conceded against GAIS
L 1.21 created, 2.78 conceded against BK Häcken
D 2.67 created, 2.09 conceded against Örgryte IS

Kalmar FF

1.01 xG created 1.74 xGA

D 1.23 created, 1.55 conceded against Malmö FF
W 0.68 created, 0.49 conceded against Mjällby AIF
D 1.62 created, 0.92 conceded against BK Häcken
L 0.99 created, 2.71 conceded against IFK Göteborg
L 0.42 created, 3.78 conceded against Hammarby IF
D 1.11 created, 0.98 conceded against Västerås SK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Halmstads BK: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Kalmar FF 2:0 Halmstads BK 10/05/2026 xG 1.36 – 0.22

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Halmstads BK against Kalmar FF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Halmstads BK 2+ goals	2.75	+20.6%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.80	+19.8%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.70	+19.2%	Lost
Kalmar FF 2+ goals	2.00	+15.4%	Lost
Halmstads BK to score	1.36	+8.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+7.4%	Lost
Kalmar FF to score	1.20	+4.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Halmstads BK	27.7%	28.1%	−0.4 pp	3.61
Draw	26.2%	26.5%	−0.4 pp	3.82
Kalmar FF	46.1%	45.3%	+0.8 pp	2.17

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Halmstads BK to score	79.2%	68.7%	+10.5 pp	1.26
Halmstads BK not to score	20.8%	31.3%	−10.5 pp	4.81
Kalmar FF to score	86.8%	78.3%	+8.5 pp	1.15
Kalmar FF not to score	13.2%	21.7%	−8.5 pp	7.58
Both teams to score	70.1%	54.7%	+15.4 pp	1.43
Both teams not to score	29.9%	45.3%	−15.4 pp	3.34
Halmstads BK 2+ goals	43.9%	33.7%	+10.1 pp	2.28
Halmstads BK at most 1 goal	56.1%	66.3%	−10.1 pp	1.78
Kalmar FF 2+ goals	57.7%	46.3%	+11.4 pp	1.73
Kalmar FF at most 1 goal	42.3%	53.7%	−11.4 pp	2.36
Over 1.5 goals	87.9%	76.6%	+11.3 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.1%	23.4%	−11.3 pp	8.25
Over 2.5 goals	66.6%	52.6%	+13.9 pp	1.50
Under 2.5 goals	33.4%	47.4%	−13.9 pp	2.99

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Halmstads BK sample: 20 matches
Kalmar FF sample: 14 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.