xgEdge

Expected goals

IFK Värnamo expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Allsvenskan · after 30 matches · updated 4 Oct

IFK Värnamo's attacking and defensive expected goals in Allsvenskan 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

IFK Värnamo xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.14 xG per match
#15/16
Attack (xG per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 IK Sirius 1.83
#2 Malmö FF 1.79
#3 BK Häcken 1.79
#4 GAIS 1.74
#5 Hammarby IF 1.73
#6 Mjällby AIF 1.59
#7 IF Elfsborg 1.56
#8 Djurgårdens IF 1.53
#9 IFK Göteborg 1.50
#10 Degerfors IF 1.39
#11 IF Brommapojkarna 1.36
#12 IFK Norrköping 1.30
#13 AIK 1.28
#14 Halmstads BK 1.14
#15 IFK Värnamo 1.14
#16 Östers IF 1.14
League avg
1.49
Total
34.17 30 matches
Defence
2.17 xGA per match
#16/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Hammarby IF 1.07
#2 AIK 1.15
#3 Mjällby AIF 1.16
#4 Djurgårdens IF 1.16
#5 Malmö FF 1.17
#6 GAIS 1.22
#7 IK Sirius 1.45
#8 IF Brommapojkarna 1.52
#9 Degerfors IF 1.53
#10 IFK Göteborg 1.58
#11 BK Häcken 1.60
#12 Halmstads BK 1.67
#13 IF Elfsborg 1.75
#14 IFK Norrköping 1.77
#15 Östers IF 1.78
#16 IFK Värnamo 2.17
League avg
1.49
Total
64.98 30 matches
xG difference
-1.03 xGD per match
#16/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Hammarby IF +0.66
#2 Malmö FF +0.62
#3 GAIS +0.52
#4 Mjällby AIF +0.43
#5 IK Sirius +0.38
#6 Djurgårdens IF +0.36
#7 BK Häcken +0.18
#8 AIK +0.12
#9 IFK Göteborg -0.08
#10 Degerfors IF -0.15
#11 IF Brommapojkarna -0.16
#12 IF Elfsborg -0.19
#13 IFK Norrköping -0.47
#14 Halmstads BK -0.52
#15 Östers IF -0.65
#16 IFK Värnamo -1.03
League avg
0.00
Total
-30.81 30 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.80 xPts per match
#16/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Hammarby IF 1.82
#2 Malmö FF 1.80
#3 GAIS 1.75
#4 Djurgårdens IF 1.64
#5 Mjällby AIF 1.62
#6 IK Sirius 1.60
#7 BK Häcken 1.51
#8 AIK 1.48
#9 IFK Göteborg 1.35
#10 IF Brommapojkarna 1.27
#11 Degerfors IF 1.23
#12 IF Elfsborg 1.23
#13 IFK Norrköping 1.08
#14 Halmstads BK 1.04
#15 Östers IF 0.97
#16 IFK Värnamo 0.80
League avg
1.38
Total
24.06 vs 16 actual pts

What the xG says

IFK Värnamo's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Allsvenskan. They rank #16 for xG difference at -1.03 per match, from about average shot volume at the league's lowest chance quality. Their 36 goals are 1.83 above 34.17 xG, while 16 points are 8.06 below 24.06 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
36 34.17 +1.83 scored 1.83 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
69 64.98 +4.02 conceded 4.02 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
16 24.06 -8.06 8.06 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

IFK Värnamo are 1.83 goals above their xG after 30 matches. The gap was widest at +2.62, against Djurgårdens IF on Sat 25/10.

Goals
36
xG
34.17
Gap
+1.83
Mon 31/03 Sun 06/04 Sun 13/04 Sun 20/04 Thu 24/04 Sun 27/04 Sat 03/05 Sat 10/05 Thu 15/05 Sun 18/05 Sat 24/05 Sun 01/06 Sun 29/06 Sat 05/07 Sun 13/07 Mon 21/07 Sun 27/07 Sat 02/08 Mon 11/08 Mon 18/08 Sun 24/08 Sat 30/08 Sun 14/09 Mon 22/09 Sun 28/09 Sun 05/10 Sun 19/10 Sat 25/10 Mon 03/11 Sun 09/11 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.21 -1.15 -1.55 -1.26 -0.92 -1.36 -0.44 -0.26 +0.76 +0.13 +0.62 -0.16 -2.13 -2.93 -2.40 -3.36 -2.98 -2.03 -0.72 +0.63 -0.42 -1.89 -0.48 -1.39 -0.30 +1.25 +1.41 +2.62 +1.88 +1.83 +0.21 -1.36 -0.40 +0.29 +0.34 -0.44 +0.92 +0.18 +1.02 -0.63 +0.49 -0.78 -1.97 -0.80 +0.53 -0.96 +0.38 +0.95 +1.31 +1.35 -1.05 -1.47 +1.41 -0.91 +1.09 +1.55 +0.16 +1.21 -0.74 -0.05 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
IFK Värnamo: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Mon 31/03 IK Sirius 1 0.79 +0.21 +0.21
Sun 06/04 Degerfors IF 0 1.36 -1.36 -1.15
Sun 13/04 IFK Göteborg 0 0.40 -0.40 -1.55
Sun 20/04 IF Brommapojkarna 2 1.71 +0.29 -1.26
Thu 24/04 AIK 1 0.66 +0.34 -0.92
Sun 27/04 IFK Norrköping 1 1.44 -0.44 -1.36
Sat 03/05 Halmstads BK 2 1.08 +0.92 -0.44
Sat 10/05 GAIS 1 0.82 +0.18 -0.26
Thu 15/05 Malmö FF 2 0.98 +1.02 +0.76
Sun 18/05 BK Häcken 0 0.63 -0.63 +0.13
Sat 24/05 Östers IF 1 0.51 +0.49 +0.62
Sun 01/06 Mjällby AIF 0 0.78 -0.78 -0.16
Sun 29/06 IF Elfsborg 0 1.97 -1.97 -2.13
Sat 05/07 Hammarby IF 0 0.80 -0.80 -2.93
Sun 13/07 Djurgårdens IF 1 0.47 +0.53 -2.40
Mon 21/07 IFK Norrköping 1 1.96 -0.96 -3.36
Sun 27/07 Hammarby IF 2 1.62 +0.38 -2.98
Sat 02/08 GAIS 2 1.05 +0.95 -2.03
Mon 11/08 IF Elfsborg 2 0.69 +1.31 -0.72
Mon 18/08 Degerfors IF 3 1.65 +1.35 +0.63
Sun 24/08 BK Häcken 1 2.05 -1.05 -0.42
Sat 30/08 IFK Göteborg 0 1.47 -1.47 -1.89
Sun 14/09 Östers IF 3 1.59 +1.41 -0.48
Mon 22/09 Halmstads BK 1 1.91 -0.91 -1.39
Sun 28/09 Malmö FF 2 0.91 +1.09 -0.30
Sun 05/10 AIK 3 1.45 +1.55 +1.25
Sun 19/10 IF Brommapojkarna 1 0.84 +0.16 +1.41
Sat 25/10 Djurgårdens IF 2 0.79 +1.21 +2.62
Mon 03/11 Mjällby AIF 0 0.74 -0.74 +1.88
Sun 09/11 IK Sirius 1 1.05 -0.05 +1.83

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

IFK Värnamo xG trend

Current form -2.24 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 30 matches. The worst was against IK Sirius on Sun 09/11 (-3.73).

npxG · last 6
0.96
npxGA · last 6
3.20
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.80 Mon 31/03 +0.80 Sun 06/04 -0.32 Sun 13/04 -1.47 Sun 20/04 -0.62 Thu 24/04 +0.32 Sun 27/04 -0.04 Sat 03/05 -0.64 Sat 10/05 -1.73 Thu 15/05 -1.01 Sun 18/05 -0.64 Sat 24/05 -0.95 Sun 01/06 +1.63 Sun 29/06 -0.82 Sat 05/07 -1.13 Sun 13/07 -0.52 Mon 21/07 -1.01 Sun 27/07 -0.89 Sat 02/08 -2.51 Mon 11/08 +0.09 Mon 18/08 -2.45 Sun 24/08 -1.49 Sat 30/08 -1.02 Sun 14/09 -0.16 Mon 22/09 -1.19 Sun 28/09 -0.47 Sun 05/10 -1.36 Sun 19/10 -3.06 Sat 25/10 -3.62 Mon 03/11 -3.73 Sun 09/11 -1.03 season avg
IFK Värnamo: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Mon 31/03 IK Sirius 0.79 1.59 -0.80 -0.80
Sun 06/04 Degerfors IF 1.36 0.56 +0.80 +0.00
Sun 13/04 IFK Göteborg 0.40 0.72 -0.32 -0.11
Sun 20/04 IF Brommapojkarna 1.71 3.18 -1.47 -0.45
Thu 24/04 AIK 0.66 1.28 -0.62 -0.48
Sun 27/04 IFK Norrköping 1.44 1.12 +0.32 -0.35
Sat 03/05 Halmstads BK 1.08 1.12 -0.04 -0.30
Sat 10/05 GAIS 0.82 1.46 -0.64 -0.35
Thu 15/05 Malmö FF 0.98 2.71 -1.73 -0.50
Sun 18/05 BK Häcken 0.63 1.64 -1.01 -0.55
Sat 24/05 Östers IF 0.51 1.15 -0.64 -0.56
Sun 01/06 Mjällby AIF 0.78 1.73 -0.95 -0.59
Sun 29/06 IF Elfsborg 1.97 0.34 +1.63 -0.42
Sat 05/07 Hammarby IF 0.80 1.62 -0.82 -0.45
Sun 13/07 Djurgårdens IF 0.47 1.60 -1.13 -0.49
Mon 21/07 IFK Norrköping 1.96 2.48 -0.52 -0.50
Sun 27/07 Hammarby IF 1.62 2.63 -1.01 -0.53
Sat 02/08 GAIS 1.05 1.94 -0.89 -0.55
Mon 11/08 IF Elfsborg 0.69 3.20 -2.51 -0.65
Mon 18/08 Degerfors IF 1.65 1.56 +0.09 -0.61
Sun 24/08 BK Häcken 2.05 4.50 -2.45 -0.70
Sat 30/08 IFK Göteborg 1.47 2.96 -1.49 -0.74
Sun 14/09 Östers IF 1.59 2.61 -1.02 -0.75
Mon 22/09 Halmstads BK 1.91 2.07 -0.16 -0.72
Sun 28/09 Malmö FF 0.91 2.10 -1.19 -0.74
Sun 05/10 AIK 1.45 1.92 -0.47 -0.73
Sun 19/10 IF Brommapojkarna 0.84 2.20 -1.36 -0.76
Sat 25/10 Djurgårdens IF 0.79 3.85 -3.06 -0.84
Mon 03/11 Mjällby AIF 0.74 4.36 -3.62 -0.93
Sun 09/11 IK Sirius 1.05 4.78 -3.73 -1.03

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.14 npxG and 2.17 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 1 hardest of 16 in Allsvenskan
+0.08 xG vs league average
Over 30 league matches
Last 5
number 4 hardest of 16 in Allsvenskan
+0.18 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.08 xG vs league average · over 30 matches · number 1 hardest of 16

  1. IK Sirius Away +0.57
  2. Mjällby AIF Home +0.37
  3. Djurgårdens IF Away +0.26
  4. IF Brommapojkarna Home −0.32
  5. AIK Away +0.05
  6. Malmö FF Away +0.40
  7. Halmstads BK Home −0.29
  8. Östers IF Away −0.42
  9. IFK Göteborg Away 0.00
  10. BK Häcken Home +0.35
  11. Degerfors IF Home +0.01
  12. IF Elfsborg Away −0.29
  13. GAIS Home +0.44
  14. Hammarby IF Home +0.51
  15. IFK Norrköping Away −0.36
  16. Djurgårdens IF Home +0.26
  17. Hammarby IF Away +0.51
  18. IF Elfsborg Home −0.29
  19. Mjällby AIF Away +0.37
  20. Östers IF Home −0.42
  21. BK Häcken Away +0.35
  22. Malmö FF Home +0.40
  23. GAIS Away +0.44
  24. Halmstads BK Away −0.29
  25. IFK Norrköping Home −0.36
  26. AIK Home +0.05
  27. IF Brommapojkarna Away −0.32
  28. IFK Göteborg Home 0.00
  29. Degerfors IF Away +0.01
  30. IK Sirius Home +0.57

Last 5

+0.18 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 4 hardest of 16

  1. IK Sirius Away +0.57
  2. Mjällby AIF Home +0.37
  3. Djurgårdens IF Away +0.26
  4. IF Brommapojkarna Home −0.32
  5. AIK Away +0.05

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

IFK Värnamo shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. IFK Värnamo take 13.2 shots a match (league 13.6) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #9 in Allsvenskan for volume and #16 for quality. 55% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.2 shots per match
#9/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Hammarby IF 17.2
#2 GAIS 16.2
#3 Malmö FF 15.9
#4 BK Häcken 15.4
#5 IK Sirius 14.9
#6 Mjällby AIF 14.5
#7 Djurgårdens IF 14.2
#8 IFK Göteborg 14.0
#9 IFK Värnamo 13.2
#10 IF Elfsborg 12.9
#11 AIK 12.8
#12 Degerfors IF 12.7
#13 IF Brommapojkarna 12.6
#14 IFK Norrköping 12.0
#15 Halmstads BK 10.1
#16 Östers IF 9.8
League avg
13.6
Total
396 shots from 30 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#16/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 IK Sirius 0.12
#2 IF Elfsborg 0.12
#3 BK Häcken 0.12
#4 Östers IF 0.12
#5 Halmstads BK 0.11
#6 Malmö FF 0.11
#7 Mjällby AIF 0.11
#8 Degerfors IF 0.11
#9 IF Brommapojkarna 0.11
#10 IFK Norrköping 0.11
#11 GAIS 0.11
#12 IFK Göteborg 0.11
#13 Djurgårdens IF 0.11
#14 Hammarby IF 0.10
#15 AIK 0.10
#16 IFK Värnamo 0.09
League avg
0.11
Total
34.17 npxG from 396 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
18.0 shots per match
#16/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Hammarby IF 10.4
#2 AIK 11.1
#3 Malmö FF 11.3
#4 GAIS 11.6
=5 BK Häcken 12.2
=5 Mjällby AIF 12.2
#7 Djurgårdens IF 12.6
#8 IFK Göteborg 13.4
#9 Degerfors IF 13.6
#10 IK Sirius 14.1
#11 IF Elfsborg 14.8
#12 Halmstads BK 14.9
#13 IF Brommapojkarna 14.9
#14 IFK Norrköping 15.5
#15 Östers IF 17.3
#16 IFK Värnamo 18.0
League avg
13.6
Total
539 shots allowed from 30 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#15/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Djurgårdens IF 0.09
#2 Mjällby AIF 0.10
#3 IF Brommapojkarna 0.10
#4 IK Sirius 0.10
#5 Hammarby IF 0.10
#6 Östers IF 0.10
#7 AIK 0.10
#8 Malmö FF 0.10
#9 GAIS 0.11
#10 Halmstads BK 0.11
#11 Degerfors IF 0.11
#12 IFK Norrköping 0.11
#13 IFK Göteborg 0.12
#14 IF Elfsborg 0.12
#15 IFK Värnamo 0.12
#16 BK Häcken 0.13
League avg
0.11
Total
64.98 npxGA from 539 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

55% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 216 of 396 shots over 30 matches

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 358 of 539 shots allowed over 30 matches

How the shot figures are made →

IFK Värnamo home and away xG

IFK Värnamo per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 15 15
xG / match 1.14 1.14
xGA / match 1.98 2.35
xGD / match -0.85 -1.21
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.88 0.72

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every IFK Värnamo match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
0.97
xGA / match
3.42
xGD / match
-2.45
Points
4 of 15
  1. Sun 09/11 IK Sirius A Weakest underlying xG 1.05 xGA 4.78 xGD -3.73
  2. Mon 03/11 Mjällby AIF H xG 0.74 xGA 4.36 xGD -3.62
  3. Sat 25/10 Djurgårdens IF A xG 0.79 xGA 3.85 xGD -3.06
  4. Sun 19/10 IF Brommapojkarna H xG 0.84 xGA 2.20 xGD -1.36
  5. Sun 05/10 AIK A Best underlying xG 1.45 xGA 1.92 xGD -0.47

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.78. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

IFK Värnamo in Allsvenskan

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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