IK Sirius 0:1 Malmö FF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

IK Sirius Home 1.72 xG

Malmö FF Away 1.77 xG

01 The chances were evenly matched

IK Sirius were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. Malmö FF won 1–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IK Sirius: 45%
Draw: 25%
Malmö FF: 30% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IK Sirius 1.93 1.72 -0.21

Malmö FF 1.60 1.77 +0.17

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IK Sirius Malmö FF

Shots: 17; 15
On target: 2; 6
Inside the box: 12; 12
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IK Sirius

2.52 xG created 1.48 xGA

W 3.67 created, 2.44 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 2.97 created, 1.85 conceded against IFK Göteborg
W 3.10 created, 0.97 conceded against Halmstads BK
D 2.16 created, 0.55 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 2.56 created, 1.51 conceded against Mjällby AIF
L 0.64 created, 1.57 conceded against BK Häcken

Malmö FF

2.02 xG created 1.29 xGA

W 3.30 created, 1.81 conceded against IFK Göteborg
D 1.55 created, 1.23 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.28 created, 0.92 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 3.22 created, 1.73 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 2.53 created, 0.70 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 0.22 created, 1.35 conceded against GAIS

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IK Sirius: 2 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IK Sirius against Malmö FF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Malmö FF to win	3.90	+17.3%	Won
Malmö FF 2+ goals	2.38	+16.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.50	+10.0%	Lost
Malmö FF to score	1.29	+5.8%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.48	+4.3%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.13	+1.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IK Sirius	44.5%	52.0%	−7.5 pp	2.25
Draw	25.4%	24.0%	+1.4 pp	3.94
Malmö FF	30.1%	24.0%	+6.1 pp	3.32

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IK Sirius to score	87.6%	85.4%	+2.2 pp	1.14
IK Sirius not to score	12.4%	14.6%	−2.2 pp	8.10
Malmö FF to score	82.3%	73.1%	+9.1 pp	1.22
Malmö FF not to score	17.7%	26.9%	−9.1 pp	5.64
Both teams to score	73.3%	62.5%	+10.8 pp	1.36
Both teams not to score	26.7%	37.5%	−10.8 pp	3.75
IK Sirius 2+ goals	59.6%	58.9%	+0.7 pp	1.68
IK Sirius at most 1 goal	40.4%	41.1%	−0.7 pp	2.48
Malmö FF 2+ goals	49.0%	39.2%	+9.8 pp	2.04
Malmö FF at most 1 goal	51.0%	60.8%	−9.8 pp	1.96
Over 1.5 goals	89.9%	84.2%	+5.7 pp	1.11
Under 1.5 goals	10.1%	15.8%	−5.7 pp	9.94
Over 2.5 goals	70.7%	63.8%	+6.9 pp	1.41
Under 2.5 goals	29.3%	36.2%	−6.9 pp	3.41

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IK Sirius sample: 20 matches
Malmö FF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.