Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 16:30
28d 2h to kick-offVästerås SK – IF Brommapojkarna
Model updated 4 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Västerås SK
- 45%
- Draw
- 26%
- IF Brommapojkarna
- 30%
| Västerås SK | Draw | IF Brommapojkarna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.24 | 3.87 | 3.38 |
- Total goals
- 3.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Västerås SK
45% Västerås SK to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 11th
- Västerås SK attack v IF Brommapojkarna defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 13th
- Västerås SK defence v IF Brommapojkarna attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.42 vs -0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.89 – 1.55
- Västerås SK v IF Brommapojkarna
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Västerås SK | IF Brommapojkarna |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.64 · 9th | 1.45 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 1.91 · 12th | (better) 1.80 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.27 · 9th | -0.35 · 10th |
| xPts / match | 1.21 · 11th | (better) 1.23 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.42 | (better) -0.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- Västerås SK clean sheet
- 19%
- Västerås SK 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.1%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 2:2
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Västerås SK sample
- 19 matches
- IF Brommapojkarna sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Västerås SK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · IF Brommapojkarna
- 9 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.