Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 17:30
Full timeVästerås SK 0:1 IK Sirius
IK Sirius were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was IK Sirius's attack: 0.95 xG against 1.90 projected (−0.95). Västerås SK produced 1.34 xG against 1.66 projected (−0.32).
The model against the result
- Västerås SK
- 32%
- Draw
- 25%
- IK Sirius
- 42% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
IK Sirius produced 0.95 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 10
- On target
- 2
- 4
- Inside the box
- 11
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.10
Recent form
1.57 xG created 2.16 xGA
- W 3.24 created, 0.92 conceded against Örgryte IS
- L 1.32 created, 3.93 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
- W 0.67 created, 2.64 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
- L 0.99 created, 2.19 conceded against IF Elfsborg
- D 0.98 created, 1.11 conceded against Kalmar FF
- W 2.23 created, 2.15 conceded against BK Häcken
2.19 xG created 1.37 xGA
- W 2.97 created, 1.85 conceded against IFK Göteborg
- W 3.10 created, 0.97 conceded against Halmstads BK
- D 2.16 created, 0.55 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
- L 2.56 created, 1.51 conceded against Mjällby AIF
- L 0.64 created, 1.57 conceded against BK Häcken
- L 1.72 created, 1.77 conceded against Malmö FF
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Västerås SK to win | 4.00 | +28.5% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | +13.9% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | +13.3% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +5.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Västerås SK | 32.1% | 23.4% | +8.7 pp | 3.11 |
| Draw | 25.5% | 26.0% | −0.5 pp | 3.93 |
| IK Sirius | 42.4% | 50.6% | −8.2 pp | 2.36 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 73.9% | 60.8% | +13.1 pp | 1.35 |
| Both teams not to score | 26.1% | 39.2% | −13.1 pp | 3.83 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.2% | 81.1% | +9.1 pp | 1.11 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.8% | 18.9% | −9.1 pp | 10.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.2% | 59.0% | +12.2 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.8% | 41.0% | −12.2 pp | 3.47 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Västerås SK sample
- 16 matches
- IK Sirius sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.