Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeSK Sturm Graz 2:1 LASK
LASK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. SK Sturm Graz won 2–1. The biggest difference was SK Sturm Graz's attack: 3.40 xG against 1.16 projected (+2.24). LASK produced 1.94 xG against 1.50 projected (+0.44).
Goals
- 34' Gizo Mamageishvili SK Sturm Graz · 0.11 xG chance 1–0
- 45' Krystof Daněk LASK · 0.09 xG chance 1–1
- 59' Oumar Diakité SK Sturm Graz · 0.89 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- SK Sturm Graz
- 27% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- LASK
- 43%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SK Sturm Graz produced 2.24 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 25
- On target
- 7
- 3
- Inside the box
- 12
- 15
- xG per shot
- 0.23
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.88
- 1.33
- Set-piece xG
- 0.49
- 0.62
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.43 for SK Sturm Graz and 1.94 for LASK.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
39 shots · 5.14 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SK Sturm Graz
- LASK
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.94 xG created 0.95 xGA
- W 2.75 created, 0.20 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
- D 2.32 created, 0.87 conceded against WSG Tirol
- W 2.20 created, 0.22 conceded against TSV Hartberg
- W 1.53 created, 1.44 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- D 2.12 created, 0.96 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
- L 0.72 created, 2.01 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
2.65 xG created 0.54 xGA
- W 1.90 created, 0.74 conceded against Austria Wien
- W 2.31 created, 0.99 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
- W 3.71 created, 0.21 conceded against Austria Wien
- W 2.32 created, 0.76 conceded against SV Ried
- W 2.88 created, 0.28 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- W 2.79 created, 0.27 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | +32.6% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +28.8% | Lost |
| LASK at most 1 goal | 2.20 | +19.7% | Won |
| LASK not to score | 6.00 | +18.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +17.0% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.63 | +7.5% | Lost |
| SK Sturm Graz not to score | 3.75 | +7.5% | Lost |
| SK Sturm Graz at most 1 goal | 1.57 | +5.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Sturm Graz | 26.5% | 25.3% | +1.2 pp | 3.77 |
| Draw | 30.0% | 24.0% | +6.0 pp | 3.33 |
| LASK | 43.5% | 50.6% | −7.2 pp | 2.30 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Sturm Graz to score | 71.3% | 75.0% | −3.7 pp | 1.40 |
| SK Sturm Graz not to score | 28.7% | 25.0% | +3.7 pp | 3.49 |
| LASK to score | 80.3% | 84.2% | −3.9 pp | 1.24 |
| LASK not to score | 19.7% | 15.8% | +3.9 pp | 5.08 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 64.5% | −5.5 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.9% | 35.5% | +5.5 pp | 2.44 |
| SK Sturm Graz 2+ goals | 32.6% | 41.1% | −8.5 pp | 3.07 |
| SK Sturm Graz at most 1 goal | 67.4% | 58.9% | +8.5 pp | 1.48 |
| LASK 2+ goals | 45.6% | 57.7% | −12.1 pp | 2.19 |
| LASK at most 1 goal | 54.4% | 42.3% | +12.1 pp | 1.84 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | 84.2% | −5.7 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.5% | 15.8% | +5.7 pp | 4.66 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 65.2% | −14.3 pp | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 34.8% | +14.3 pp | 2.04 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Sturm Graz sample
- 20 matches
- LASK sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.