TSV Hartberg 3:2 SV Ried: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

TSV Hartberg Home 2.78 xG · 14 shots

SV Ried Away 1.67 xG · 17 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

SV Ried were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. TSV Hartberg won 3–2. The biggest difference was TSV Hartberg's attack: 2.78 xG against 1.13 projected (+1.65). SV Ried produced 1.67 xG against 1.39 projected (+0.28).

Goals

6' Marco Hoffmann (pen.) TSV Hartberg · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
11' Samuel Johansen Chukwudi SV Ried · 0.11 xG chance 1–1
38' Marco Hoffmann TSV Hartberg · 0.69 xG chance 2–1
64' Evan Eghosa SV Ried · 0.60 xG chance 2–2
71' Jonas Karner TSV Hartberg · 0.07 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

TSV Hartberg: 28% What happened
Draw: 31%
SV Ried: 41%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

TSV Hartberg 1.13 2.78 +1.65

SV Ried 1.39 1.67 +0.28

TSV Hartberg produced 1.65 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

TSV Hartberg SV Ried

Shots: 14; 17
On target: 5; 5
Inside the box: 8; 11
xG per shot: 0.20; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.69; 1.23
Set-piece xG: 0.30; 0.46
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.99 for TSV Hartberg and 1.67 for SV Ried.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 4.50 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

TSV Hartberg
SV Ried
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

TSV Hartberg

0.89 xG created 2.14 xGA

L 1.30 created, 1.79 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
W 1.05 created, 1.84 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
L 0.73 created, 4.11 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
L 0.22 created, 2.20 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
L 0.79 created, 0.99 conceded against Austria Wien
W 1.22 created, 1.91 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach

SV Ried

1.46 xG created 1.44 xGA

W 1.73 created, 0.34 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
L 0.50 created, 2.17 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
D 2.92 created, 0.78 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
L 1.07 created, 1.77 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
L 0.76 created, 2.32 conceded against LASK
W 1.75 created, 1.24 conceded against Grazer AK 1902

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

TSV Hartberg: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on TSV Hartberg against SV Ried before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.50	+5.9%	Lost
SV Ried to score	1.29	+0.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
TSV Hartberg	27.7%	31.6%	−3.9 pp	3.61
Draw	31.1%	27.1%	+4.0 pp	3.21
SV Ried	41.2%	41.3%	−0.1 pp	2.43

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
TSV Hartberg to score	70.4%	70.9%	−0.5 pp	1.42
TSV Hartberg not to score	29.6%	29.1%	+0.5 pp	3.38
SV Ried to score	78.0%	73.1%	+4.9 pp	1.28
SV Ried not to score	22.0%	26.9%	−4.9 pp	4.54
Both teams to score	56.7%	53.3%	+3.4 pp	1.76
Both teams not to score	43.3%	46.7%	−3.4 pp	2.31
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals	31.5%	35.5%	−4.0 pp	3.18
TSV Hartberg at most 1 goal	68.5%	64.5%	+4.0 pp	1.46
SV Ried 2+ goals	41.7%	41.1%	+0.6 pp	2.40
SV Ried at most 1 goal	58.3%	58.9%	−0.6 pp	1.72
Over 1.5 goals	76.0%	73.1%	+2.9 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.0%	26.9%	−2.9 pp	4.17
Over 2.5 goals	47.2%	50.0%	−2.8 pp	2.12
Under 2.5 goals	52.8%	50.0%	+2.8 pp	1.90

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
TSV Hartberg sample: 20 matches
SV Ried sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.