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Expected goals

TSV Hartberg expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Austrian Bundesliga · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

TSV Hartberg's attacking and defensive expected goals in Austrian Bundesliga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

TSV Hartberg xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.01 xG per match
#11/12
Attack (xG per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Red Bull Salzburg 2.68
#2 LASK 2.54
#3 SK Rapid Wien 2.26
#4 SV Ried 1.96
#5 SK Sturm Graz 1.83
#6 WSG Tirol 1.52
#7 SC Rheindorf Altach 1.24
#8 SC Austria Lustenau 1.24
#9 Grazer AK 1902 1.14
#10 Wolfsberger AC 1.14
#11 TSV Hartberg 1.01
#12 Austria Wien 0.74
League avg
1.61
Total
7.08 7 matches
Defence
2.02 xGA per match
#11/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 LASK 0.93
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 1.08
#3 SK Rapid Wien 1.10
#4 SK Sturm Graz 1.29
#5 SC Rheindorf Altach 1.33
#6 SV Ried 1.75
#7 Grazer AK 1902 1.75
#8 WSG Tirol 1.76
#9 Austria Wien 1.85
#10 SC Austria Lustenau 1.89
#11 TSV Hartberg 2.02
#12 Wolfsberger AC 2.53
League avg
1.61
Total
14.17 7 matches
xG difference
-1.01 xGD per match
#10/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 LASK +1.60
#2 Red Bull Salzburg +1.60
#3 SK Rapid Wien +1.16
#4 SK Sturm Graz +0.53
#5 SV Ried +0.22
#6 SC Rheindorf Altach -0.08
#7 WSG Tirol -0.24
#8 Grazer AK 1902 -0.61
#9 SC Austria Lustenau -0.65
#10 TSV Hartberg -1.01
#11 Austria Wien -1.12
#12 Wolfsberger AC -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
-7.09 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.79 xPts per match
#10/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 LASK 2.33
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 2.33
#3 SK Rapid Wien 1.95
#4 SK Sturm Graz 1.70
#5 SC Rheindorf Altach 1.42
#6 SV Ried 1.40
#7 WSG Tirol 1.32
#8 Grazer AK 1902 1.20
#9 SC Austria Lustenau 0.93
#10 TSV Hartberg 0.79
#11 Austria Wien 0.77
#12 Wolfsberger AC 0.70
League avg
1.41
Total
5.51 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

TSV Hartberg's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Austrian Bundesliga. They rank #10 for xG difference at -1.01 per match, from the league's lowest shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 10 goals are 2.92 above 7.08 xG, while 8 points are 2.49 above 5.51 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.76 xG from penalties
10 7.08 +2.92 scored 2.92 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
13 14.17 -1.17 conceded 1.17 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 5.51 +2.49 2.49 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

TSV Hartberg are 2.92 goals above their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
10
xG
7.08
Gap
+2.92
Sat 01/08 Sat 08/08 Sun 16/08 Sat 22/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -0.73 -0.95 -1.74 -0.96 -0.74 +0.55 +2.92 -0.73 -0.22 -0.79 +0.78 +0.22 +1.29 +2.37 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
TSV Hartberg: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 Red Bull Salzburg 0 0.73 -0.73 -0.73
Sat 08/08 SK Sturm Graz 0 0.22 -0.22 -0.95
Sun 16/08 Austria Wien 0 0.79 -0.79 -1.74
Sat 22/08 SC Rheindorf Altach 2 1.22 +0.78 -0.96
Sun 30/08 SV Ried 3 2.78 +0.22 -0.74
Sun 13/09 WSG Tirol 2 0.71 +1.29 +0.55
Sun 20/09 LASK 3 0.63 +2.37 +2.92

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

TSV Hartberg xG trend

Current form -0.50 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 7 matches. The worst was against Red Bull Salzburg on Sat 01/08 (-3.26).

npxG · last 6
0.94
npxGA · last 6
1.44
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -3.26 Sat 01/08 -1.20 Sat 08/08 -0.34 Sun 16/08 -0.53 Sat 22/08 +0.32 Sun 30/08 +0.03 Sun 13/09 -1.27 Sun 20/09 -0.89 season avg
TSV Hartberg: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 Red Bull Salzburg 0.66 3.92 -3.26 -3.26
Sat 08/08 SK Sturm Graz 0.28 1.48 -1.20 -2.23
Sun 16/08 Austria Wien 0.81 1.15 -0.34 -1.60
Sat 22/08 SC Rheindorf Altach 1.34 1.87 -0.53 -1.33
Sun 30/08 SV Ried 1.99 1.67 +0.32 -1.00
Sun 13/09 WSG Tirol 0.71 0.68 +0.03 -0.83
Sun 20/09 LASK 0.53 1.80 -1.27 -0.89

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.90 npxG and 1.80 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 1 hardest of 12 in Austrian Bundesliga
+0.18 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 6 hardest of 12 in Austrian Bundesliga
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.18 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 1 hardest of 12

  1. LASK Home +0.91
  2. WSG Tirol Away −0.25
  3. SV Ried Home −0.17
  4. SC Rheindorf Altach Away −0.18
  5. Austria Wien Home −0.22
  6. SK Sturm Graz Home +0.41
  7. Red Bull Salzburg Away +0.74

Last 5

+0.02 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 6 hardest of 12

  1. LASK Home +0.91
  2. WSG Tirol Away −0.25
  3. SV Ried Home −0.17
  4. SC Rheindorf Altach Away −0.18
  5. Austria Wien Home −0.22

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

TSV Hartberg shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. TSV Hartberg take 9.0 shots a match (league 14.1) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #12 in Austrian Bundesliga for volume and #7 for quality. 51% of their shots come from inside the box (league 62%), and set pieces produce 25% of their npxG (league 27%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.0 shots per match
#12/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 LASK 21.0
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 20.4
=3 SK Rapid Wien 16.1
=3 SK Sturm Graz 16.1
#5 SV Ried 15.6
#6 SC Austria Lustenau 14.1
#7 Grazer AK 1902 12.7
#8 Wolfsberger AC 11.9
#9 SC Rheindorf Altach 11.7
#10 WSG Tirol 11.0
#11 Austria Wien 9.6
#12 TSV Hartberg 9.0
League avg
14.1
Total
63 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#7/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SK Rapid Wien 0.13
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 0.13
#3 LASK 0.11
#4 SV Ried 0.11
#5 WSG Tirol 0.10
#6 SC Rheindorf Altach 0.10
#7 TSV Hartberg 0.10
#8 Wolfsberger AC 0.09
#9 SK Sturm Graz 0.09
#10 SC Austria Lustenau 0.08
#11 Grazer AK 1902 0.08
#12 Austria Wien 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
6.32 npxG from 63 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
19.6 shots per match
#12/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 LASK 7.7
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 11.0
#3 SK Rapid Wien 12.1
#4 WSG Tirol 12.4
#5 Austria Wien 13.0
=6 SC Rheindorf Altach 13.9
=6 SK Sturm Graz 13.9
#8 SC Austria Lustenau 15.0
#9 Grazer AK 1902 16.1
#10 SV Ried 17.0
#11 Wolfsberger AC 17.6
#12 TSV Hartberg 19.6
League avg
14.1
Total
137 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#4/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 SK Sturm Graz 0.08
#2 SV Ried 0.09
#3 SK Rapid Wien 0.09
#4 TSV Hartberg 0.09
#5 SC Austria Lustenau 0.09
#6 Red Bull Salzburg 0.09
#7 SC Rheindorf Altach 0.09
#8 Grazer AK 1902 0.10
#9 LASK 0.10
#10 Wolfsberger AC 0.13
#11 Austria Wien 0.14
#12 WSG Tirol 0.14
League avg
0.10
Total
12.57 npxGA from 137 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

51% inside the box

League avg 62%

From 32 of 63 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

61% allowed inside the box

League avg 62%

From 84 of 137 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

75% open play · 25% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 1.6 of 6.3 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

70% open play · 30% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 3.8 of 12.5 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

TSV Hartberg home and away xG

TSV Hartberg per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 1.11 0.89
xGA / match 1.67 2.50
xGD / match -0.57 -1.61
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.97 0.54

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every TSV Hartberg match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.01
xGA / match
2.02
xGD / match
-1.01
Points
8 of 21
  1. Sun 20/09 LASK H xG 0.63 xGA 1.82 xGD -1.19
  2. Sun 13/09 WSG Tirol A xG 0.71 xGA 1.47 P xGD -0.76
  3. Sun 30/08 SV Ried H Best underlying xG 2.78 P xGA 1.67 xGD +1.11
  4. Sat 22/08 SC Rheindorf Altach A xG 1.22 xGA 1.91 xGD -0.69
  5. Sun 16/08 Austria Wien H xG 0.79 xGA 0.99 xGD -0.20
  6. Sat 08/08 SK Sturm Graz H xG 0.22 xGA 2.20 P xGD -1.98
  7. Sat 01/08 Red Bull Salzburg A Weakest underlying xG 0.73 xGA 4.11 xGD -3.38

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.11. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

TSV Hartberg in Austrian Bundesliga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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