Austrian Bundesliga expected points table 2026/2027
Every Austrian Bundesliga club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
LASK lead on expected points with 16.33 over 7 matches with xG. TSV Hartberg sit 4 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 6 against 10 on expected points. SC Rheindorf Altach sit 7 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 12 against 5 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LASK LAS | 7 | 16 | 16.33 | −0.33 | 3 | 2 places below its expected-points rank |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg RED | 7 | 17 | 16.32 | +0.68 | 2 | Same place as on expected points |
| 3 | SK Rapid Wien SKR | 7 | 18 | 13.66 | +4.34 | 1 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 4 | SK Sturm Graz SKS | 7 | 11 | 11.93 | −0.93 | 4 | Same place as on expected points |
| 5 | SC Rheindorf Altach SCR | 7 | 3 | 9.97 | −6.97 | 12 | 7 places below its expected-points rank |
| 6 | SV Ried SVR | 7 | 8 | 9.81 | −1.81 | 5 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 7 | WSG Tirol WSG | 7 | 8 | 9.25 | −1.25 | 7 | Same place as on expected points |
| 8 | Grazer AK 1902 GRA | 7 | 8 | 8.43 | −0.43 | 9 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 9 | SC Austria Lustenau SCA | 7 | 8 | 6.53 | +1.47 | 8 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 10 | TSV Hartberg TSV | 7 | 8 | 5.51 | +2.49 | 6 | 4 places above its expected-points rank |
| 11 | Austria Wien AUS | 7 | 7 | 5.42 | +1.58 | 10 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC WOL | 7 | 5 | 4.87 | +0.13 | 11 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.