1. FC Köln 1:2 VfB Stuttgart: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 28/09/2025 at 17:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

1. FC Köln Home 1.13 xG · 15 shots

VfB Stuttgart Away 1.87 xG · 15 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

4' Jakub Kamiński 1. FC Köln · 0.50 xG chance 1–0
28' Ermedin Demirović (pen.) VfB Stuttgart · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
81' Josha Vagnoman VfB Stuttgart · 0.28 xG chance 1–2

The shots behind it

1. FC Köln VfB Stuttgart

Shots: 15; 15
On target: 7; 5
Inside the box: 9; 10
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.74; 0.54
Set-piece xG: 0.36; 0.51
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.08 for 1. FC Köln.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 2.97 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

1. FC Köln
VfB Stuttgart
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

1. FC Köln

1.71 xG created 1.80 xGA

W 1.36 created, 1.52 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
W 2.11 created, 0.91 conceded against SC Freiburg
D 1.65 created, 1.50 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
L 1.70 created, 3.28 conceded against RB Leipzig

VfB Stuttgart

1.30 xG created 1.17 xGA

L 1.72 created, 0.35 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 0.84 created, 1.82 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 0.53 created, 1.55 conceded against SC Freiburg
W 2.11 created, 0.95 conceded against FC St. Pauli

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.