Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 15:30
Full time1. FC Union Berlin 3:3 Eintracht Frankfurt
1. FC Union Berlin were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 3–3. The biggest difference was Eintracht Frankfurt's attack: 1.47 xG against 1.08 projected (+0.39).
Goals
- 3' Emmanuel Latte Lath 1. FC Union Berlin · 0.15 xG chance 1–0
- 10' Younes Ebnoutalib Eintracht Frankfurt · 0.15 xG chance 1–1
- 11' Younes Ebnoutalib Eintracht Frankfurt · 0.43 xG chance 1–2
- 67' Younes Ebnoutalib Eintracht Frankfurt · 0.07 xG chance 1–3
- 79' Leopold Querfeld 1. FC Union Berlin · 0.09 xG chance 2–3
- 90' Tim Skarke 1. FC Union Berlin · 0.51 xG chance 3–3
The model against the result
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- 49%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Eintracht Frankfurt produced 0.39 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 11
- On target
- 10
- 3
- Inside the box
- 15
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 1.10
- 1.19
- Set-piece xG
- 0.84
- 0.22
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.96 for 1. FC Union Berlin and 1.37 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 3.35 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.75 xG created 1.74 xGA
- L 0.99 created, 1.85 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
- L 1.79 created, 0.19 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
- L 0.19 created, 4.49 conceded against RB Leipzig
- D 1.15 created, 1.75 conceded against 1. FC Köln
- W 2.68 created, 1.57 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
- W 3.68 created, 0.61 conceded against FC Augsburg
1.36 xG created 1.72 xGA
- W 1.29 created, 2.33 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
- L 1.45 created, 2.09 conceded against RB Leipzig
- D 1.11 created, 2.00 conceded against FC Augsburg
- L 0.65 created, 0.62 conceded against Hamburger SV
- L 1.12 created, 1.94 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
- D 2.56 created, 1.32 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin to win | 2.60 | +28.1% | Lost |
| Eintracht Frankfurt not to score | 4.00 | +23.9% | Lost |
| Eintracht Frankfurt at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +21.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +4.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.60 | +3.3% | Won |
| 1. FC Union Berlin to score | 1.22 | +1.6% | Won |
| 1. FC Union Berlin 2+ goals | 2.00 | +1.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 49.3% | 36.7% | +12.5 pp | 2.03 |
| Draw | 28.7% | 26.5% | +2.2 pp | 3.49 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 22.0% | 36.7% | −14.7 pp | 4.54 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin to score | 83.1% | 76.6% | +6.5 pp | 1.20 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin not to score | 16.9% | 23.4% | −6.5 pp | 5.93 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt to score | 69.0% | 76.6% | −7.6 pp | 1.45 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt not to score | 31.0% | 23.4% | +7.6 pp | 3.23 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 60.8% | −1.7 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.9% | 39.2% | +1.7 pp | 2.44 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin 2+ goals | 50.6% | 46.3% | +4.2 pp | 1.98 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin at most 1 goal | 49.4% | 53.7% | −4.2 pp | 2.02 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals | 29.5% | 46.3% | −16.8 pp | 3.39 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt at most 1 goal | 70.5% | 53.7% | +16.8 pp | 1.42 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | 78.9% | +0.7 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.3% | 21.1% | −0.7 pp | 4.93 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 56.9% | −4.3 pp | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 43.1% | +4.3 pp | 2.11 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FC Union Berlin sample
- 20 matches
- Eintracht Frankfurt sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.