1. FSV Mainz 05 1:3 1. FC Union Berlin: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 10/05/2026 at 19:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

1. FSV Mainz 05 Home 1.57 xG · 14 shots

1. FC Union Berlin Away 2.68 xG · 16 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

38' Andrej Ilić 1. FC Union Berlin · 0.54 xG chance 0–1
48' Sheraldo Becker 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.42 xG chance 1–1
88' Oliver Burke 1. FC Union Berlin · 0.33 xG chance 1–2
90' Josip Juranović 1. FC Union Berlin · 0.51 xG chance 1–3

The shots behind it

1. FSV Mainz 05 1. FC Union Berlin

Shots: 14; 16
On target: 3; 9
Inside the box: 10; 12
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.17
Open play xG: 0.89; 1.32
Set-piece xG: 0.55; 1.44
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.49 for 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 2.77 for 1. FC Union Berlin.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 4.20 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Union Berlin
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

1. FSV Mainz 05

1.97 xG created 1.12 xGA

W 1.55 created, 1.23 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 2.16 created, 1.23 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
L 0.55 created, 0.56 conceded against SC Freiburg
D 2.32 created, 0.62 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 2.69 created, 2.21 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 2.54 created, 0.84 conceded against FC St. Pauli

1. FC Union Berlin

1.05 xG created 2.36 xGA

L 0.21 created, 5.53 conceded against FC Bayern München
D 1.95 created, 0.33 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 0.99 created, 1.85 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
L 1.79 created, 0.19 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
L 0.19 created, 4.49 conceded against RB Leipzig
D 1.15 created, 1.75 conceded against 1. FC Köln

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

1. FSV Mainz 05: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

1. FC Union Berlin 2:2 1. FSV Mainz 05 10/01/2026 xG 3.35 – 1.01

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.