FC Schalke 04 0:0 FC Bayern München: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

FC Schalke 04 Home 0.21 xG · 4 shots

FC Bayern München Away 1.94 xG · 15 shots

00 FC Bayern München had the better chances, but it finished level

FC Bayern München were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was FC Schalke 04's attack: 0.21 xG against 1.65 projected (−1.44).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Schalke 04: 27%
Draw: 24% What happened
FC Bayern München: 49%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Schalke 04 1.65 0.21 -1.44

FC Bayern München 2.17 1.94 -0.23

FC Schalke 04 produced 1.44 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Schalke 04 FC Bayern München

Shots: 4; 15
On target: 1; 5
Inside the box: 3; 10
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.14
Open play xG: 0.13; 1.78
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.37
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.21 for FC Schalke 04 and 2.10 for FC Bayern München.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

19 shots · 2.37 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Schalke 04
FC Bayern München
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Schalke 04

1.54 xG created 3.52 xGA

L 1.54 created, 3.52 conceded against FC Augsburg

FC Bayern München

3.02 xG created 1.91 xGA

W 4.61 created, 1.35 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
W 2.21 created, 2.69 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
D 2.31 created, 2.59 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
W 1.85 created, 3.04 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
W 3.05 created, 0.98 conceded against 1. FC Köln
W 4.06 created, 0.79 conceded against VfB Stuttgart

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Schalke 04 against FC Bayern München before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Schalke 04 to win	15.00	+309.3%	Lost
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals	4.33	+120.2%	Lost
Draw	8.50	+101.4%	Won
FC Bayern München at most 1 goal	5.50	+85.8%	Won
FC Bayern München not to score	19.00	+79.9%	Won
FC Schalke 04 to score	1.67	+38.8%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+27.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	4.33	+4.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Schalke 04	27.3%	6.3%	+21.0 pp	3.66
Draw	23.7%	11.1%	+12.6 pp	4.22
FC Bayern München	49.0%	82.6%	−33.6 pp	2.04

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Schalke 04 to score	83.3%	55.7%	+27.5 pp	1.20
FC Schalke 04 not to score	16.7%	44.3%	−27.5 pp	5.98
FC Bayern München to score	90.5%	94.9%	−4.4 pp	1.10
FC Bayern München not to score	9.5%	5.1%	+4.4 pp	10.56
Both teams to score	76.4%	55.7%	+20.7 pp	1.31
Both teams not to score	23.6%	44.3%	−20.7 pp	4.24
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals	50.8%	21.7%	+29.1 pp	1.97
FC Schalke 04 at most 1 goal	49.2%	78.3%	−29.1 pp	2.03
FC Bayern München 2+ goals	66.2%	82.8%	−16.6 pp	1.51
FC Bayern München at most 1 goal	33.8%	17.2%	+16.6 pp	2.96
Over 1.5 goals	92.3%	90.4%	+1.9 pp	1.08
Under 1.5 goals	7.7%	9.6%	−1.9 pp	12.99
Over 2.5 goals	75.8%	78.0%	−2.2 pp	1.32
Under 2.5 goals	24.2%	22.0%	+2.2 pp	4.14

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Schalke 04 sample: 1 match
FC Bayern München sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Schalke 04 has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.