RB Leipzig 3:0 Borussia M'gladbach: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

RB Leipzig Home 3.96 xG · 25 shots

Borussia M'gladbach Away 1.09 xG · 15 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

RB Leipzig were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was RB Leipzig's attack: 3.96 xG against 2.00 projected (+1.96).

Goals

26' Ridle Baku RB Leipzig · 0.46 xG chance 1–0
49' Antonio Nusa RB Leipzig · 0.08 xG chance 2–0
66' Rocco Reitz RB Leipzig · 0.35 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

RB Leipzig: 58% What happened
Draw: 25%
Borussia M'gladbach: 17%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

RB Leipzig 2.00 3.96 +1.96

Borussia M'gladbach 1.08 1.09 +0.01

RB Leipzig produced 1.96 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

RB Leipzig Borussia M'gladbach

Shots: 25; 15
On target: 11; 4
Inside the box: 19; 10
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.06
Open play xG: 2.60; 0.69
Set-piece xG: 1.95; 0.28
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 4.60 for RB Leipzig and 0.97 for Borussia M'gladbach.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

40 shots · 5.52 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

RB Leipzig
Borussia M'gladbach
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RB Leipzig

2.13 xG created 1.67 xGA

W 2.43 created, 1.78 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
W 2.09 created, 1.45 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 4.49 created, 0.19 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
L 1.17 created, 4.42 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
W 1.37 created, 0.79 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 1.24 created, 1.41 conceded against SC Freiburg

Borussia M'gladbach

1.24 xG created 1.82 xGA

L 1.78 created, 2.43 conceded against RB Leipzig
D 0.62 created, 2.32 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
D 0.51 created, 1.47 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
W 2.20 created, 0.49 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
L 1.14 created, 2.59 conceded against FC Augsburg
W 1.20 created, 1.62 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

RB Leipzig: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on RB Leipzig against Borussia M'gladbach before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.50	+11.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.63	+1.2%	Lost
RB Leipzig at most 1 goal	2.63	+0.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RB Leipzig	58.2%	61.5%	−3.3 pp	1.72
Draw	24.7%	21.2%	+3.5 pp	4.05
Borussia M'gladbach	17.1%	17.3%	−0.3 pp	5.86

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RB Leipzig to score	88.6%	88.1%	+0.5 pp	1.13
RB Leipzig not to score	11.4%	11.9%	−0.5 pp	8.78
Borussia M'gladbach to score	69.1%	66.3%	+2.8 pp	1.45
Borussia M'gladbach not to score	30.9%	33.7%	−2.8 pp	3.24
Both teams to score	62.6%	60.8%	+1.8 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.4%	39.2%	−1.8 pp	2.67
RB Leipzig 2+ goals	61.7%	64.5%	−2.8 pp	1.62
RB Leipzig at most 1 goal	38.3%	35.5%	+2.8 pp	2.61
Borussia M'gladbach 2+ goals	29.6%	33.7%	−4.1 pp	3.38
Borussia M'gladbach at most 1 goal	70.4%	66.3%	+4.1 pp	1.42
Over 1.5 goals	85.0%	82.8%	+2.2 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.0%	17.2%	−2.2 pp	6.68
Over 2.5 goals	61.5%	63.6%	−2.2 pp	1.63
Under 2.5 goals	38.5%	36.4%	+2.2 pp	2.60

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
RB Leipzig sample: 20 matches
Borussia M'gladbach sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.