RB Leipzig 2:1 FC St. Pauli: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 09/05/2026 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

RB Leipzig Home 1.37 xG · 13 shots

FC St. Pauli Away 0.79 xG · 7 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

45' Xaver Schlager RB Leipzig · 0.11 xG chance 1–0
54' Willi Orbán RB Leipzig · 0.04 xG chance 2–0
86' Abdoulie Ceesay FC St. Pauli · 0.18 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

RB Leipzig FC St. Pauli

Shots: 13; 7
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 8; 4
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.12
Open play xG: 1.39; 0.75
Set-piece xG: 0.25; 0.06
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.64 for RB Leipzig and 0.83 for FC St. Pauli.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 2.45 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RB Leipzig

2.34 xG created 1.66 xGA

W 2.39 created, 0.78 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
W 1.49 created, 1.34 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
W 2.43 created, 1.78 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
W 2.09 created, 1.45 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 4.49 created, 0.19 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
L 1.17 created, 4.42 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen

FC St. Pauli

0.92 xG created 2.22 xGA

L 0.76 created, 2.04 conceded against SC Freiburg
D 0.33 created, 1.95 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
L 0.49 created, 3.84 conceded against FC Bayern München
D 2.01 created, 1.33 conceded against 1. FC Köln
L 1.06 created, 1.61 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
L 0.84 created, 2.54 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

RB Leipzig: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

FC St. Pauli 1:1 RB Leipzig 27/01/2026 xG 1.45 – 1.09

Model details

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The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.