TSG Hoffenheim 2:3 Borussia Dortmund: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

TSG Hoffenheim Home 1.17 xG · 18 shots

Borussia Dortmund Away 2.02 xG · 12 shots

23 The scoreline reflected the chances

TSG Hoffenheim were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. Borussia Dortmund won 3–2. The biggest difference was Borussia Dortmund's attack: 2.02 xG against 1.26 projected (+0.76). TSG Hoffenheim produced 1.17 xG against 1.58 projected (−0.41).

Goals

45' Leon Avdullahu TSG Hoffenheim · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
54' Tim Lemperle TSG Hoffenheim · 0.15 xG chance 2–0
61' Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund · 0.58 xG chance 2–1
66' Fábio Silva Borussia Dortmund · 0.14 xG chance 2–2
87' Albian Hajdari (o.g.) Borussia Dortmund · 0.14 xG chance 2–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

TSG Hoffenheim: 43%
Draw: 29%
Borussia Dortmund: 28% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

TSG Hoffenheim 1.58 1.17 -0.41

Borussia Dortmund 1.26 2.02 +0.76

Borussia Dortmund produced 0.76 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

TSG Hoffenheim Borussia Dortmund

Shots: 18; 12
On target: 6; 5
Inside the box: 11; 10
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.18
Open play xG: 0.58; 1.97
Set-piece xG: 0.57; 0.19
Penalties: —; —

TSG Hoffenheim's shots add up to 1.15 xG and Borussia Dortmund's to 2.16; the published figures are 1.17 and 2.02.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 3.31 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

TSG Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

TSG Hoffenheim

1.87 xG created 1.31 xGA

W 2.25 created, 0.70 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
W 1.45 created, 1.37 conceded against Hamburger SV
D 2.47 created, 1.57 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
W 1.52 created, 1.07 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
L 1.62 created, 1.20 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 1.88 created, 1.95 conceded against 1. FC Köln

Borussia Dortmund

1.80 xG created 1.29 xGA

L 0.70 created, 2.25 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
W 3.37 created, 0.76 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 0.49 created, 2.20 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
W 1.94 created, 1.12 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 2.74 created, 0.49 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
W 1.53 created, 0.91 conceded against Hamburger SV

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

TSG Hoffenheim: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on TSG Hoffenheim against Borussia Dortmund before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Borussia Dortmund not to score	5.50	+40.1%	Lost
Borussia Dortmund at most 1 goal	2.10	+33.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.75	+22.3%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+10.5%	Lost
Draw	3.75	+8.9%	Lost
TSG Hoffenheim to win	2.50	+7.9%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.75	+2.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
TSG Hoffenheim	43.2%	37.8%	+5.4 pp	2.32
Draw	29.0%	25.2%	+3.9 pp	3.44
Borussia Dortmund	27.8%	37.0%	−9.2 pp	3.60

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
TSG Hoffenheim to score	81.8%	78.3%	+3.5 pp	1.22
TSG Hoffenheim not to score	18.2%	21.7%	−3.5 pp	5.51
Borussia Dortmund to score	74.5%	82.8%	−8.3 pp	1.34
Borussia Dortmund not to score	25.5%	17.2%	+8.3 pp	3.92
Both teams to score	62.6%	66.3%	−3.6 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.4%	33.7%	+3.6 pp	2.68
TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals	48.3%	48.5%	−0.2 pp	2.07
TSG Hoffenheim at most 1 goal	51.7%	51.5%	+0.2 pp	1.94
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals	36.5%	55.7%	−19.2 pp	2.74
Borussia Dortmund at most 1 goal	63.5%	44.3%	+19.2 pp	1.58
Over 1.5 goals	81.6%	84.2%	−2.6 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.4%	15.8%	+2.6 pp	5.43
Over 2.5 goals	55.5%	65.6%	−10.0 pp	1.80
Under 2.5 goals	44.5%	34.4%	+10.0 pp	2.25

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
TSG Hoffenheim sample: 20 matches
Borussia Dortmund sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 30 minutes before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.