AEL Limassol 2:1 Nea Salamina Famagusta: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Cypriot First Division

AEL Limassol Home 2.57 xG

Nea Salamina Famagusta Away 1.36 xG

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

AEL Limassol were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was AEL Limassol's attack: 2.57 xG against 1.23 projected (+1.34).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AEL Limassol: 35% What happened
Draw: 32%
Nea Salamina Famagusta: 32%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AEL Limassol 1.23 2.57 +1.34

Nea Salamina Famagusta 1.17 1.36 +0.19

AEL Limassol produced 1.34 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AEL Limassol Nea Salamina Famagusta

Shots: 15; 8
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 9; 5
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.17

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AEL Limassol

1.37 xG created 1.64 xGA

W 2.63 created, 1.17 conceded against Enosis Neon Paralimniou
D 1.84 created, 1.13 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
L 1.12 created, 0.97 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
W 0.80 created, 3.63 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas
W 1.73 created, 0.51 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta
L 0.08 created, 2.45 conceded against APOEL Nicosia

Nea Salamina Famagusta

1.21 xG created 2.18 xGA

D 1.49 created, 1.65 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
L 0.94 created, 2.70 conceded against AEK Larnaca

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AEL Limassol against Nea Salamina Famagusta before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Nea Salamina Famagusta to win	3.60	+15.8%	Lost
Draw	3.30	+7.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AEL Limassol	35.4%	47.4%	−12.0 pp	2.82
Draw	32.4%	27.4%	+5.0 pp	3.09
Nea Salamina Famagusta	32.2%	25.1%	+7.0 pp	3.11

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.9%	51.5%	+3.4 pp	1.82
Both teams not to score	45.1%	48.5%	−3.4 pp	2.22
Over 1.5 goals	73.6%	71.1%	+2.5 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.4%	28.9%	−2.5 pp	3.79
Over 2.5 goals	43.9%	46.3%	−2.4 pp	2.28
Under 2.5 goals	56.1%	53.7%	+2.4 pp	1.78

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AEL Limassol sample: 20 matches
Nea Salamina Famagusta sample: 1 match
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Nea Salamina Famagusta has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.