Nea Salamina Famagusta 1:4 AEK Larnaca: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Cypriot First Division

Nea Salamina Famagusta Home 0.94 xG

AEK Larnaca Away 2.70 xG

14 The scoreline reflected the chances

Nea Salamina Famagusta were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 34%. AEK Larnaca won 4–1. The biggest difference was AEK Larnaca's attack: 2.70 xG against 1.27 projected (+1.43). Nea Salamina Famagusta produced 0.94 xG against 1.27 projected (−0.33).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Nea Salamina Famagusta: 34%
Draw: 32%
AEK Larnaca: 34% What happened

Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Nea Salamina Famagusta 1.27 0.94 -0.33

AEK Larnaca 1.27 2.70 +1.43

AEK Larnaca produced 1.43 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Nea Salamina Famagusta AEK Larnaca

Shots: 10; 12
On target: 1; 6
Inside the box: 9; 8
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.23

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Nea Salamina Famagusta

1.49 xG created 1.65 xGA

D 1.49 created, 1.65 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia

AEK Larnaca

0.94 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 0.83 created, 0.70 conceded against Aris Limassol
L 0.81 created, 0.65 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
W 1.13 created, 1.38 conceded against Apollon Limassol
D 0.84 created, 2.60 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
D 1.56 created, 1.90 conceded against Pafos FC
W 0.44 created, 1.51 conceded against APOEL Nicosia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Nea Salamina Famagusta against AEK Larnaca before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Nea Salamina Famagusta to win	4.75	+63.0%	Lost
Draw	3.75	+18.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+6.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Nea Salamina Famagusta	34.3%	19.4%	+14.9 pp	2.91
Draw	31.5%	24.6%	+6.9 pp	3.17
AEK Larnaca	34.1%	55.9%	−21.8 pp	2.93

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.0%	50.0%	+8.0 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	42.0%	50.0%	−8.0 pp	2.38
Over 1.5 goals	76.6%	73.1%	+3.5 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.4%	26.9%	−3.5 pp	4.28
Over 2.5 goals	47.9%	50.0%	−2.1 pp	2.09
Under 2.5 goals	52.1%	50.0%	+2.1 pp	1.92

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Nea Salamina Famagusta sample: 0 matches
AEK Larnaca sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Warnings

There is not a single played match in the database for Nea Salamina Famagusta — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.