Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 0:1 Aris Limassol: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Cypriot First Division

Enosis Neon Ypsona FC Home 0.96 xG

Aris Limassol Away 1.31 xG

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Aris Limassol were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 1–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Enosis Neon Ypsona FC: 22%
Draw: 31%
Aris Limassol: 48% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 0.96 0.96 0.00

Aris Limassol 1.49 1.31 -0.18

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Enosis Neon Ypsona FC Aris Limassol

Shots: 5; 12
On target: 1; 4
Inside the box: 4; 9
xG per shot: 0.19; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Enosis Neon Ypsona FC

1.57 xG created 1.56 xGA

D 2.53 created, 2.09 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
D 1.13 created, 1.84 conceded against AEL Limassol
L 1.47 created, 3.25 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta
D 1.16 created, 0.36 conceded against Enosis Neon Paralimniou
L 1.78 created, 0.87 conceded against ALS Omonia
L 1.35 created, 0.94 conceded against Omonia Aradippou

Aris Limassol

1.49 xG created 1.77 xGA

L 0.64 created, 3.08 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
W 1.46 created, 1.28 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
L 0.85 created, 1.34 conceded against Pafos FC
L 2.30 created, 1.14 conceded against Apollon Limassol
D 2.39 created, 1.60 conceded against Apollon Limassol
L 1.28 created, 2.20 conceded against Omonia Nicosia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Enosis Neon Ypsona FC: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Enosis Neon Ypsona FC against Aris Limassol before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.90	+19.3%	Lost
Aris Limassol at most 1 goal	2.10	+15.4%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+14.8%	Won
Aris Limassol not to score	5.50	+10.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.00	+1.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC	21.6%	20.5%	+1.1 pp	4.64
Draw	30.6%	23.6%	+7.0 pp	3.27
Aris Limassol	47.8%	55.9%	−8.0 pp	2.09

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC to score	65.1%	62.5%	+2.6 pp	1.54
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC not to score	34.9%	37.5%	−2.6 pp	2.86
Aris Limassol to score	80.0%	83.0%	−3.0 pp	1.25
Aris Limassol not to score	20.0%	17.0%	+3.0 pp	5.00
Both teams to score	53.9%	51.5%	+2.4 pp	1.86
Both teams not to score	46.1%	48.5%	−2.4 pp	2.17
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 2+ goals	24.9%	27.7%	−2.7 pp	4.01
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC at most 1 goal	75.1%	72.3%	+2.7 pp	1.33
Aris Limassol 2+ goals	45.1%	55.7%	−10.7 pp	2.22
Aris Limassol at most 1 goal	54.9%	44.3%	+10.7 pp	1.82
Over 1.5 goals	74.6%	76.6%	−2.0 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.4%	23.4%	+2.0 pp	3.94
Over 2.5 goals	45.3%	55.3%	−9.9 pp	2.21
Under 2.5 goals	54.7%	44.7%	+9.9 pp	1.83

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC sample: 20 matches
Aris Limassol sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.