Omonia Aradippou 2:1 Enosis Neon Ypsona FC: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Cypriot First Division

Omonia Aradippou Home 0.94 xG

Enosis Neon Ypsona FC Away 1.35 xG

21 The result went against the chances

Omonia Aradippou were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Omonia Aradippou's attack: 0.94 xG against 1.67 projected (−0.73).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Omonia Aradippou: 49% What happened
Draw: 28%
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Omonia Aradippou 1.67 0.94 -0.73

Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 1.14 1.35 +0.21

Omonia Aradippou produced 0.73 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Omonia Aradippou Enosis Neon Ypsona FC

Shots: 7; 10
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 3; 4
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Omonia Aradippou

1.42 xG created 1.69 xGA

D 1.25 created, 1.03 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta
D 2.09 created, 2.53 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
L 0.79 created, 0.52 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
W 1.87 created, 1.54 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas
W 1.55 created, 1.58 conceded against Ethnikos Achnas
D 0.95 created, 2.96 conceded against Omonia Nicosia

Enosis Neon Ypsona FC

1.62 xG created 1.87 xGA

W 1.64 created, 2.83 conceded against Ethnikos Achnas
D 2.53 created, 2.09 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
D 1.13 created, 1.84 conceded against AEL Limassol
L 1.47 created, 3.25 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta
D 1.16 created, 0.36 conceded against Enosis Neon Paralimniou
L 1.78 created, 0.87 conceded against ALS Omonia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Omonia Aradippou: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Omonia Aradippou against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.10	+15.1%	Won
Both teams to score	1.83	+11.3%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.36	+10.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Omonia Aradippou	48.7%	45.0%	+3.7 pp	2.05
Draw	28.3%	27.9%	+0.3 pp	3.54
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC	23.0%	27.1%	−4.1 pp	4.34

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.7%	50.0%	+10.7 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.3%	50.0%	−10.7 pp	2.55
Over 1.5 goals	81.1%	68.7%	+12.3 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.9%	31.3%	−12.3 pp	5.28
Over 2.5 goals	54.8%	44.7%	+10.1 pp	1.82
Under 2.5 goals	45.2%	55.3%	−10.1 pp	2.21

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Omonia Aradippou sample: 20 matches
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.