Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeNea Salamina Famagusta 3:0 Anorthosis Famagusta
Nea Salamina Famagusta were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Nea Salamina Famagusta's attack: 1.58 xG against 1.31 projected (+0.27).
The model against the result
- Nea Salamina Famagusta
- 39% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Anorthosis Famagusta
- 28%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Nea Salamina Famagusta produced 0.27 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 16
- On target
- 5
- 6
- Inside the box
- 6
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.08
Recent form
1.26 xG created 2.31 xGA
1.48 xG created 1.67 xGA
- W 1.80 created, 0.05 conceded against Enosis Neon Paralimniou
- W 3.25 created, 1.47 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- L 0.49 created, 3.88 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
- L 0.51 created, 1.73 conceded against AEL Limassol
- L 1.02 created, 2.33 conceded against Apollon Limassol
- W 1.81 created, 0.56 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Nea Salamina Famagusta sample
- 3 matches
- Anorthosis Famagusta sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Nea Salamina Famagusta has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.