Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFC Hradec Králové 2:1 AC Sparta Praha
AC Sparta Praha were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. FC Hradec Králové won 2–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 10' Vladimír Darida FC Hradec Králové · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
- 25' Mick van Buren FC Hradec Králové · 0.42 xG chance 2–0
- 36' Adam Karabec AC Sparta Praha · 0.46 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- FC Hradec Králové
- 30% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- AC Sparta Praha
- 39%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 12
- On target
- 5
- 6
- Inside the box
- 8
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.67
- 0.99
- Set-piece xG
- 0.44
- 0.16
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.13 for FC Hradec Králové and 1.13 for AC Sparta Praha.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 2.26 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Hradec Králové
- AC Sparta Praha
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.05 xG created 1.10 xGA
- L 1.08 created, 1.14 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
- W 1.11 created, 0.31 conceded against FK Pardubice
- D 0.83 created, 0.68 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
- W 2.39 created, 0.80 conceded against Baník Ostrava
- L 0.36 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
- L 0.53 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
1.76 xG created 1.41 xGA
- L 1.45 created, 2.21 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
- W 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Zlín
- L 0.77 created, 1.49 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
- W 2.12 created, 0.82 conceded against FK Teplice
- W 1.78 created, 1.21 conceded against SK Líšeň
- L 2.34 created, 1.83 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | +8.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +8.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Hradec Králové | 30.5% | 28.5% | +2.0 pp | 3.28 |
| Draw | 30.9% | 26.0% | +4.9 pp | 3.24 |
| AC Sparta Praha | 38.7% | 45.5% | −6.9 pp | 2.59 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 60.8% | −1.8 pp | 1.70 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.0% | 39.2% | +1.8 pp | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | 78.3% | −0.5 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.2% | 21.7% | +0.5 pp | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 56.3% | −6.7 pp | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 43.7% | +6.7 pp | 1.99 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Hradec Králové sample
- 20 matches
- AC Sparta Praha sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.