Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFC Zbrojovka Brno 3:2 FC Zlín
FC Zbrojovka Brno were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was FC Zbrojovka Brno's attack: 1.02 xG against 1.66 projected (−0.64).
Goals
- 23' Daniel Vašulín FC Zbrojovka Brno · 0.08 xG chance 1–0
- 58' Michal Fukala FC Zlín · 0.23 xG chance 1–1
- 59' Miloš Kopečný (o.g.) FC Zbrojovka Brno · 0.12 xG chance 2–1
- 86' Jakub Černín FC Zlín · 0.14 xG chance 2–2
- 90' Filip Vedral FC Zbrojovka Brno · 0.50 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- FC Zbrojovka Brno
- 54% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- FC Zlín
- 18%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
FC Zbrojovka Brno produced 0.64 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 10
- On target
- 4
- 3
- Inside the box
- 7
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.04
- 0.39
- Set-piece xG
- 0.14
- 0.44
- Penalties
- —
- —
FC Zbrojovka Brno's shots add up to 1.18 xG and FC Zlín's to 0.83; the published figures are 1.02 and 0.90.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
20 shots · 2.01 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Zbrojovka Brno
- FC Zlín
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.02 xG created 1.46 xGA
0.72 xG created 1.49 xGA
- W 0.29 created, 0.50 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- L 0.81 created, 1.01 conceded against Baník Ostrava
- L 0.92 created, 2.11 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
- L 0.84 created, 1.94 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
- L 1.06 created, 2.22 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
- L 0.38 created, 1.15 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.80 | +7.9% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 | +1.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Zbrojovka Brno | 53.5% | 56.7% | −3.1 pp | 1.87 |
| Draw | 28.4% | 24.1% | +4.3 pp | 3.52 |
| FC Zlín | 18.1% | 19.3% | −1.2 pp | 5.53 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 50.0% | +4.7 pp | 1.83 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.3% | 50.0% | −4.7 pp | 2.21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | 74.2% | +2.9 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.8% | 25.8% | −2.9 pp | 4.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 50.0% | −1.0 pp | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | 50.0% | +1.0 pp | 1.96 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Zbrojovka Brno sample
- 4 matches
- FC Zlín sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- FC Zbrojovka Brno has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.