Wednesday, 09/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFK Jablonec 3:0 Baník Ostrava
FK Jablonec were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was FK Jablonec's attack: 2.87 xG against 1.58 projected (+1.29).
Goals
- 44' Filip Novák FK Jablonec · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
- 55' Antonín Růsek FK Jablonec · 0.49 xG chance 2–0
- 70' Matěj Polidar FK Jablonec · 0.46 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- FK Jablonec
- 48% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Baník Ostrava
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Jablonec produced 1.29 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 9
- On target
- 7
- 2
- Inside the box
- 19
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 2.38
- 0.78
- Set-piece xG
- 0.58
- 0.09
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.87 for FK Jablonec and 0.85 for Baník Ostrava.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
31 shots · 3.83 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FK Jablonec
- Baník Ostrava
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.18 xG created 1.09 xGA
- W 1.34 created, 0.37 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- W 0.61 created, 2.75 conceded against FK Pardubice
- W 0.36 created, 0.58 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- L 1.15 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Teplice
- D 1.15 created, 1.75 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
- L 2.47 created, 0.32 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
1.24 xG created 1.67 xGA
- W 1.01 created, 0.81 conceded against FC Zlín
- L 0.70 created, 2.19 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- L 0.80 created, 2.39 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- W 2.23 created, 0.91 conceded against SK Líšeň
- W 0.24 created, 0.63 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- L 2.44 created, 3.10 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +2.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +0.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec | 48.3% | 50.9% | −2.6 pp | 2.07 |
| Draw | 29.3% | 26.2% | +3.1 pp | 3.41 |
| Baník Ostrava | 22.4% | 22.9% | −0.5 pp | 4.47 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec to score | 81.9% | 79.2% | +2.7 pp | 1.22 |
| FK Jablonec not to score | 18.1% | 20.8% | −2.7 pp | 5.53 |
| Baník Ostrava to score | 68.1% | 66.3% | +1.8 pp | 1.47 |
| Baník Ostrava not to score | 31.9% | 33.7% | −1.8 pp | 3.13 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 53.3% | +4.1 pp | 1.74 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.5% | 46.7% | −4.1 pp | 2.35 |
| FK Jablonec 2+ goals | 48.4% | 48.5% | −0.1 pp | 2.06 |
| FK Jablonec at most 1 goal | 51.6% | 51.5% | +0.1 pp | 1.94 |
| Baník Ostrava 2+ goals | 28.5% | 31.3% | −2.8 pp | 3.51 |
| Baník Ostrava at most 1 goal | 71.5% | 68.7% | +2.8 pp | 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | 76.6% | +1.5 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.9% | 23.4% | −1.5 pp | 4.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 52.6% | −2.3 pp | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 47.4% | +2.3 pp | 2.01 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Jablonec sample
- 20 matches
- Baník Ostrava sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.