Mladá Boleslav 2:1 1. FC Slovácko: xG & match report · Czech First League

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Czech First League

Mladá Boleslav Home 1.16 xG · 12 shots

1. FC Slovácko Away 2.18 xG · 17 shots

21 The result went against the chances

Mladá Boleslav were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was 1. FC Slovácko's attack: 2.18 xG against 0.98 projected (+1.20). Mladá Boleslav produced 1.16 xG against 1.50 projected (−0.34).

Goals

36' Solomon John Mladá Boleslav · 0.26 xG chance 1–0
66' Lukáš Letenay Mladá Boleslav · 0.38 xG chance 2–0
88' Gigli Ndefe 1. FC Slovácko · 0.70 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Mladá Boleslav: 48% What happened
Draw: 30%
1. FC Slovácko: 22%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Mladá Boleslav 1.50 1.16 -0.34

1. FC Slovácko 0.98 2.18 +1.20

1. FC Slovácko produced 1.20 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Mladá Boleslav 1. FC Slovácko

Shots: 12; 17
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 10; 11
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.19; 1.62
Set-piece xG: 0.03; 0.12
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.18 for Mladá Boleslav and 1.70 for 1. FC Slovácko.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.96 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Mladá Boleslav
1. FC Slovácko
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Mladá Boleslav

1.76 xG created 1.56 xGA

W 1.74 created, 0.93 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
L 3.23 created, 2.26 conceded against FK Teplice
W 2.17 created, 1.57 conceded against SK Líšeň
D 1.17 created, 2.48 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
W 1.49 created, 0.77 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
D 0.75 created, 1.37 conceded against FK Pardubice

1. FC Slovácko

0.70 xG created 1.59 xGA

L 0.93 created, 1.74 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
L 0.50 created, 0.29 conceded against FC Zlín
L 0.62 created, 3.73 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
D 0.53 created, 1.42 conceded against SK Líšeň
L 0.58 created, 0.36 conceded against FK Jablonec
L 1.04 created, 2.02 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Mladá Boleslav: 1 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Mladá Boleslav against 1. FC Slovácko before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+13.3%	Lost
Mladá Boleslav at most 1 goal	2.00	+9.1%	Lost
Mladá Boleslav not to score	5.50	+8.7%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+8.2%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+6.1%	Lost
1. FC Slovácko at most 1 goal	1.40	+4.0%	Won
1. FC Slovácko not to score	3.00	+4.0%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.20	+0.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Mladá Boleslav	47.8%	49.8%	−2.1 pp	2.09
Draw	30.3%	26.1%	+4.2 pp	3.30
1. FC Slovácko	21.9%	24.0%	−2.1 pp	4.56

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Mladá Boleslav to score	80.2%	82.8%	−2.6 pp	1.25
Mladá Boleslav not to score	19.8%	17.2%	+2.6 pp	5.06
1. FC Slovácko to score	65.3%	68.7%	−3.4 pp	1.53
1. FC Slovácko not to score	34.7%	31.3%	+3.4 pp	2.88
Both teams to score	54.2%	57.7%	−3.5 pp	1.84
Both teams not to score	45.8%	42.3%	+3.5 pp	2.18
Mladá Boleslav 2+ goals	45.4%	53.7%	−8.2 pp	2.20
Mladá Boleslav at most 1 goal	54.6%	46.3%	+8.2 pp	1.83
1. FC Slovácko 2+ goals	25.7%	33.7%	−8.0 pp	3.89
1. FC Slovácko at most 1 goal	74.3%	66.3%	+8.0 pp	1.35
Over 1.5 goals	75.0%	78.3%	−3.3 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	25.0%	21.7%	+3.3 pp	4.01
Over 2.5 goals	46.1%	55.3%	−9.2 pp	2.17
Under 2.5 goals	53.9%	44.7%	+9.2 pp	1.85

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Mladá Boleslav sample: 20 matches
1. FC Slovácko sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.