Legia Warszawa 1:1 Śląsk Wrocław: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Ekstraklasa

Legia Warszawa Home 1.82 xG · 21 shots

Śląsk Wrocław Away 1.76 xG · 13 shots

11 The chances were evenly matched

Legia Warszawa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Śląsk Wrocław's attack: 1.76 xG against 1.05 projected (+0.71). Legia Warszawa produced 1.82 xG against 1.54 projected (+0.28).

Goals

35' Piotr Samiec-Talar (pen.) Śląsk Wrocław · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
90' Rafał Adamski Legia Warszawa · 0.07 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Legia Warszawa: 47%
Draw: 30% What happened
Śląsk Wrocław: 23%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Legia Warszawa 1.54 1.82 +0.28

Śląsk Wrocław 1.05 1.76 +0.71

Śląsk Wrocław produced 0.71 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Legia Warszawa Śląsk Wrocław

Shots: 21; 13
On target: 6; 5
Inside the box: 14; 9
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.14
Open play xG: 1.41; 0.81
Set-piece xG: 0.41; 0.15
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.98 for Śląsk Wrocław.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 3.60 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Legia Warszawa
Śląsk Wrocław
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Legia Warszawa

1.73 xG created 0.81 xGA

W 2.33 created, 0.54 conceded against Motor Lublin
W 3.02 created, 1.08 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
W 1.70 created, 1.03 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
D 0.69 created, 0.73 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
W 1.68 created, 0.38 conceded against Radomiak Radom
D 0.98 created, 1.10 conceded against Piast Gliwice

Śląsk Wrocław

1.38 xG created 1.47 xGA

L 1.54 created, 0.67 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
W 1.52 created, 3.02 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
D 0.75 created, 1.48 conceded against Cracovia
L 1.26 created, 0.89 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
D 1.83 created, 1.29 conceded against Widzew Łódź

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Legia Warszawa against Śląsk Wrocław before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Śląsk Wrocław to win	6.50	+49.1%	Lost
Legia Warszawa not to score	6.50	+21.8%	Lost
Legia Warszawa at most 1 goal	2.25	+19.0%	Won
Draw	3.90	+16.3%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+6.6%	Won
Śląsk Wrocław 2+ goals	3.75	+6.5%	Lost
Śląsk Wrocław to score	1.53	+4.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Legia Warszawa	47.2%	62.2%	−15.0 pp	2.12
Draw	29.8%	23.6%	+6.2 pp	3.35
Śląsk Wrocław	22.9%	14.2%	+8.8 pp	4.36

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Legia Warszawa to score	81.3%	85.4%	−4.1 pp	1.23
Legia Warszawa not to score	18.7%	14.6%	+4.1 pp	5.34
Śląsk Wrocław to score	68.0%	60.8%	+7.2 pp	1.47
Śląsk Wrocław not to score	32.0%	39.2%	−7.2 pp	3.13
Both teams to score	57.0%	53.3%	+3.7 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	43.0%	46.7%	−3.7 pp	2.33
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals	47.1%	58.9%	−11.8 pp	2.12
Legia Warszawa at most 1 goal	52.9%	41.1%	+11.8 pp	1.89
Śląsk Wrocław 2+ goals	28.4%	25.0%	+3.4 pp	3.52
Śląsk Wrocław at most 1 goal	71.6%	75.0%	−3.4 pp	1.40
Over 1.5 goals	77.4%	78.3%	−0.9 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.6%	21.7%	+0.9 pp	4.43
Over 2.5 goals	49.2%	55.3%	−6.0 pp	2.03
Under 2.5 goals	50.8%	44.7%	+6.0 pp	1.97

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Legia Warszawa sample: 20 matches
Śląsk Wrocław sample: 5 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Śląsk Wrocław has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.