MKS Korona Kielce 0:2 Górnik Zabrze: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Tuesday, 15/09/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Ekstraklasa

MKS Korona Kielce Home 0.09 xG · 2 shots

Górnik Zabrze Away 1.77 xG · 14 shots

02 The scoreline reflected the chances

MKS Korona Kielce were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 34%. Górnik Zabrze won 2–0. The biggest difference was MKS Korona Kielce's attack: 0.09 xG against 1.25 projected (−1.16). Górnik Zabrze produced 1.77 xG against 1.23 projected (+0.54).

Goals

41' Peter González Górnik Zabrze · 0.06 xG chance 0–1
90' Peter González Górnik Zabrze · 0.02 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

MKS Korona Kielce: 34%
Draw: 32%
Górnik Zabrze: 34% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

MKS Korona Kielce 1.25 0.09 -1.16

Górnik Zabrze 1.23 1.77 +0.54

MKS Korona Kielce produced 1.16 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

MKS Korona Kielce Górnik Zabrze

Shots: 2; 14
On target: 0; 5
Inside the box: 1; 10
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.00; 1.33
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.43
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.77 for Górnik Zabrze.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

16 shots · 1.85 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

MKS Korona Kielce
Górnik Zabrze
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

MKS Korona Kielce

1.38 xG created 1.43 xGA

D 0.73 created, 0.69 conceded against Legia Warszawa
W 2.09 created, 2.31 conceded against Widzew Łódź
D 0.88 created, 0.68 conceded against Motor Lublin
W 0.92 created, 2.25 conceded against Wisła Płock
D 1.14 created, 1.35 conceded against Wisła Kraków
W 2.54 created, 1.29 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław

Górnik Zabrze

1.76 xG created 1.21 xGA

W 2.28 created, 2.24 conceded against Radomiak Radom
W 0.60 created, 1.69 conceded against Wisła Kraków
L 2.50 created, 1.56 conceded against GKS Katowice
W 2.22 created, 0.84 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
W 1.44 created, 0.45 conceded against Cracovia
W 1.53 created, 0.50 conceded against Lech Poznań

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

MKS Korona Kielce: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on MKS Korona Kielce against Górnik Zabrze before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+8.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.90	+2.5%	Won
Górnik Zabrze at most 1 goal	1.57	+1.3%	Lost
MKS Korona Kielce at most 1 goal	1.57	+0.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
MKS Korona Kielce	34.4%	36.2%	−1.8 pp	2.91
Draw	32.0%	27.7%	+4.3 pp	3.13
Górnik Zabrze	33.7%	36.2%	−2.5 pp	2.97

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
MKS Korona Kielce to score	74.2%	73.1%	+1.1 pp	1.35
MKS Korona Kielce not to score	25.8%	26.9%	−1.1 pp	3.87
Górnik Zabrze to score	73.7%	73.1%	+0.6 pp	1.36
Górnik Zabrze not to score	26.3%	26.9%	−0.6 pp	3.81
Both teams to score	56.6%	55.7%	+0.9 pp	1.77
Both teams not to score	43.4%	44.3%	−0.9 pp	2.30
MKS Korona Kielce 2+ goals	36.1%	41.1%	−5.0 pp	2.77
MKS Korona Kielce at most 1 goal	63.9%	58.9%	+5.0 pp	1.56
Górnik Zabrze 2+ goals	35.5%	41.1%	−5.6 pp	2.81
Górnik Zabrze at most 1 goal	64.5%	58.9%	+5.6 pp	1.55
Over 1.5 goals	75.2%	73.1%	+2.1 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	24.8%	26.9%	−2.1 pp	4.04
Over 2.5 goals	46.1%	50.0%	−3.9 pp	2.17
Under 2.5 goals	53.9%	50.0%	+3.9 pp	1.85

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
MKS Korona Kielce sample: 20 matches
Górnik Zabrze sample: 20 matches
Computed: 12 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 12 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.