Raków Częstochowa 1:2 Górnik Zabrze: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Thursday, 03/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Ekstraklasa

Raków Częstochowa Home 0.84 xG · 12 shots

Górnik Zabrze Away 2.22 xG · 10 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Raków Częstochowa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Górnik Zabrze won 2–1. The biggest difference was Górnik Zabrze's attack: 2.22 xG against 1.27 projected (+0.95). Raków Częstochowa produced 0.84 xG against 1.46 projected (−0.62).

Goals

6' Janis Antiste Górnik Zabrze · 0.40 xG chance 0–1
34' Rafał Janicki Górnik Zabrze · 0.58 xG chance 0–2
79' Mahir Emreli Raków Częstochowa · 0.18 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Raków Częstochowa: 40%
Draw: 30%
Górnik Zabrze: 30% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Raków Częstochowa 1.46 0.84 -0.62

Górnik Zabrze 1.27 2.22 +0.95

Górnik Zabrze produced 0.95 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Raków Częstochowa Górnik Zabrze

Shots: 12; 10
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 8; 9
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.23
Open play xG: 0.63; 1.69
Set-piece xG: 0.22; 0.66
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.86 for Raków Częstochowa and 2.31 for Górnik Zabrze.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 3.20 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Raków Częstochowa
Górnik Zabrze
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.32 xG created 2.24 xGA

W 0.83 created, 3.28 conceded against Piast Gliwice
W 0.52 created, 0.60 conceded against MZKS Arka Gdynia
L 1.46 created, 0.86 conceded against Wisła Płock
L 3.02 created, 1.52 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
L 0.85 created, 2.74 conceded against Cracovia
L 1.24 created, 4.44 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok

Górnik Zabrze

1.94 xG created 1.44 xGA

W 1.01 created, 0.73 conceded against Wisła Płock
W 4.56 created, 0.86 conceded against Radomiak Radom
W 0.67 created, 1.54 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
W 2.28 created, 2.24 conceded against Radomiak Radom
W 0.60 created, 1.69 conceded against Wisła Kraków
L 2.50 created, 1.56 conceded against GKS Katowice

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Raków Częstochowa: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Raków Częstochowa against Górnik Zabrze before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Górnik Zabrze at most 1 goal	1.62	+1.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Raków Częstochowa	39.5%	36.7%	+2.8 pp	2.53
Draw	30.1%	28.3%	+1.8 pp	3.32
Górnik Zabrze	30.4%	35.0%	−4.6 pp	3.29

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Raków Częstochowa to score	79.3%	76.6%	+2.7 pp	1.26
Raków Częstochowa not to score	20.7%	23.4%	−2.7 pp	4.83
Górnik Zabrze to score	74.8%	75.0%	−0.2 pp	1.34
Górnik Zabrze not to score	25.2%	25.0%	+0.2 pp	3.97
Both teams to score	61.0%	57.7%	+3.4 pp	1.64
Both teams not to score	39.0%	42.3%	−3.4 pp	2.57
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals	44.0%	44.3%	−0.3 pp	2.27
Raków Częstochowa at most 1 goal	56.0%	55.7%	+0.3 pp	1.78
Górnik Zabrze 2+ goals	36.9%	42.3%	−5.4 pp	2.71
Górnik Zabrze at most 1 goal	63.1%	57.7%	+5.4 pp	1.58
Over 1.5 goals	79.8%	78.3%	+1.5 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	20.2%	21.7%	−1.5 pp	4.94
Over 2.5 goals	52.6%	55.3%	−2.6 pp	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	47.4%	44.7%	+2.6 pp	2.11

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Raków Częstochowa sample: 20 matches
Górnik Zabrze sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.