xgEdge

Expected goals

MZKS Arka Gdynia expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Ekstraklasa · after 34 matches · updated 4 Oct

MZKS Arka Gdynia's attacking and defensive expected goals in Ekstraklasa 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

MZKS Arka Gdynia xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.05 xG per match
#18/18
Attack (xG per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Lech Poznań 1.89
#2 KS Lechia Gdańsk 1.72
#3 Raków Częstochowa 1.62
#4 Pogoń Szczecin 1.57
#5 MKS Korona Kielce 1.49
#6 Jagiellonia Białystok 1.48
#7 Górnik Zabrze 1.48
#8 Legia Warszawa 1.43
#9 Piast Gliwice 1.41
#10 GKS Katowice 1.32
#11 Radomiak Radom 1.32
#12 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 1.29
#13 Cracovia 1.29
#14 Motor Lublin 1.26
#15 Wisła Płock 1.24
#16 Widzew Łódź 1.20
#17 Zagłębie Lubin 1.16
#18 MZKS Arka Gdynia 1.05
League avg
1.40
Total
35.65 34 matches
Defence
1.58 xGA per match
#14/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Legia Warszawa 1.03
#2 Cracovia 1.10
#3 Widzew Łódź 1.14
#4 Lech Poznań 1.19
#5 Górnik Zabrze 1.23
#6 Raków Częstochowa 1.28
#7 Wisła Płock 1.34
#8 Piast Gliwice 1.40
#9 Zagłębie Lubin 1.40
#10 GKS Katowice 1.40
#11 MKS Korona Kielce 1.45
#12 KS Lechia Gdańsk 1.48
#13 Radomiak Radom 1.51
#14 MZKS Arka Gdynia 1.58
#15 Pogoń Szczecin 1.58
#16 Jagiellonia Białystok 1.64
#17 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 1.70
#18 Motor Lublin 1.73
League avg
1.40
Total
53.82 34 matches
xG difference
-0.53 xGD per match
#18/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Lech Poznań +0.70
#2 Legia Warszawa +0.39
#3 Raków Częstochowa +0.33
#4 Górnik Zabrze +0.24
#5 KS Lechia Gdańsk +0.24
#6 Cracovia +0.18
#7 Widzew Łódź +0.06
#8 MKS Korona Kielce +0.04
#9 Piast Gliwice +0.02
#10 Pogoń Szczecin -0.02
#11 GKS Katowice -0.08
#12 Wisła Płock -0.10
#13 Jagiellonia Białystok -0.15
#14 Radomiak Radom -0.20
#15 Zagłębie Lubin -0.24
#16 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza -0.41
#17 Motor Lublin -0.47
#18 MZKS Arka Gdynia -0.53
League avg
0.00
Total
-18.17 34 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.00 xPts per match
#18/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Lech Poznań 1.86
#2 Legia Warszawa 1.69
#3 Raków Częstochowa 1.61
#4 KS Lechia Gdańsk 1.52
#5 Cracovia 1.51
#6 Górnik Zabrze 1.49
#7 MKS Korona Kielce 1.42
#8 Widzew Łódź 1.41
#9 Piast Gliwice 1.40
#10 Pogoń Szczecin 1.39
#11 Radomiak Radom 1.30
#12 Wisła Płock 1.29
#13 Jagiellonia Białystok 1.29
#14 GKS Katowice 1.27
#15 Zagłębie Lubin 1.16
#16 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 1.11
#17 Motor Lublin 1.08
#18 MZKS Arka Gdynia 1.00
League avg
1.38
Total
34.16 vs 36 actual pts

What the xG says

MZKS Arka Gdynia's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Ekstraklasa. They rank #18 for xG difference at -0.53 per match, from the league's lowest shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 34 goals are 1.65 below 35.65 xG, while 36 points are 1.84 above 34.16 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
34 35.65 -1.65 scored 1.65 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
61 53.82 +7.18 conceded 7.18 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
36 34.16 +1.84 1.84 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

MZKS Arka Gdynia are 1.65 goals below their xG after 34 matches.

Goals
34
xG
35.65
Gap
-1.65
Sun 20/07 Fri 25/07 Sun 03/08 Sat 09/08 Sat 16/08 Sun 24/08 Fri 29/08 Sun 14/09 Sat 20/09 Mon 29/09 Sat 04/10 Sat 18/10 Sat 25/10 Sun 02/11 Sun 09/11 Fri 21/11 Sun 30/11 Sat 06/12 Sat 07/02 Sun 15/02 Sun 22/02 Fri 27/02 Thu 05/03 Mon 09/03 Sun 15/03 Sun 22/03 Tue 07/04 Sun 12/04 Sun 19/04 Mon 27/04 Fri 08/05 Wed 13/05 Mon 18/05 Sat 23/05 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -0.49 -0.25 -0.91 +0.61 +1.02 +0.56 +1.10 +0.13 -0.31 -0.93 -0.04 -0.74 +0.49 +0.73 +1.65 +0.83 +1.16 -0.11 +0.96 +0.60 +1.12 +1.92 +1.65 +1.57 +0.97 +0.16 +1.30 +2.74 +0.14 -0.08 +0.20 -1.10 -1.05 -1.65 -0.49 +0.24 -0.66 +1.52 +0.41 -0.46 +0.54 -0.97 -0.44 -0.62 +0.89 -0.70 +1.23 +0.24 +0.92 -0.82 +0.33 -1.27 +1.07 -0.36 +0.52 +0.80 -0.27 -0.08 -0.60 -0.81 +1.14 +1.44 -2.60 -0.22 +0.28 -1.30 +0.05 -0.60 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
MZKS Arka Gdynia: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 20/07 Motor Lublin 0 0.49 -0.49 -0.49
Fri 25/07 Radomiak Radom 1 0.76 +0.24 -0.25
Sun 03/08 Legia Warszawa 0 0.66 -0.66 -0.91
Sat 09/08 Pogoń Szczecin 2 0.48 +1.52 +0.61
Sat 16/08 GKS Katowice 1 0.59 +0.41 +1.02
Sun 24/08 KS Lechia Gdańsk 0 0.46 -0.46 +0.56
Fri 29/08 Wisła Płock 1 0.46 +0.54 +1.10
Sun 14/09 Widzew Łódź 0 0.97 -0.97 +0.13
Sat 20/09 MKS Korona Kielce 0 0.44 -0.44 -0.31
Mon 29/09 Zagłębie Lubin 0 0.62 -0.62 -0.93
Sat 04/10 Cracovia 2 1.11 +0.89 -0.04
Sat 18/10 Jagiellonia Białystok 0 0.70 -0.70 -0.74
Sat 25/10 Piast Gliwice 2 0.77 +1.23 +0.49
Sun 02/11 Górnik Zabrze 1 0.76 +0.24 +0.73
Sun 09/11 Lech Poznań 3 2.08 +0.92 +1.65
Fri 21/11 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 0 0.82 -0.82 +0.83
Sun 30/11 Raków Częstochowa 1 0.67 +0.33 +1.16
Sat 06/12 Motor Lublin 1 2.27 -1.27 -0.11
Sat 07/02 Legia Warszawa 2 0.93 +1.07 +0.96
Sun 15/02 Pogoń Szczecin 0 0.36 -0.36 +0.60
Sun 22/02 GKS Katowice 2 1.48 +0.52 +1.12
Fri 27/02 KS Lechia Gdańsk 2 1.20 +0.80 +1.92
Thu 05/03 Radomiak Radom 1 1.27 -0.27 +1.65
Mon 09/03 Wisła Płock 3 3.08 -0.08 +1.57
Sun 15/03 Widzew Łódź 0 0.60 -0.60 +0.97
Sun 22/03 MKS Korona Kielce 0 0.81 -0.81 +0.16
Tue 07/04 Zagłębie Lubin 3 1.86 +1.14 +1.30
Sun 12/04 Cracovia 2 0.56 +1.44 +2.74
Sun 19/04 Jagiellonia Białystok 0 2.60 -2.60 +0.14
Mon 27/04 Piast Gliwice 1 1.22 -0.22 -0.08
Fri 08/05 Lech Poznań 1 0.72 +0.28 +0.20
Wed 13/05 Górnik Zabrze 0 1.30 -1.30 -1.10
Mon 18/05 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 2 1.95 +0.05 -1.05
Sat 23/05 Raków Częstochowa 0 0.60 -0.60 -1.65

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

MZKS Arka Gdynia xG trend

Current form +0.11 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 11 of 34 matches. The worst was against GKS Katowice on Sat 16/08 (-2.85).

npxG · last 6
1.41
npxGA · last 6
1.30
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.43 Sun 20/07 -0.08 Fri 25/07 -1.19 Sun 03/08 -0.74 Sat 09/08 -2.85 Sat 16/08 -0.49 Sun 24/08 -1.00 Fri 29/08 -1.46 Sun 14/09 -0.01 Sat 20/09 -0.60 Mon 29/09 +0.29 Sat 04/10 -2.09 Sat 18/10 -0.71 Sat 25/10 -1.62 Sun 02/11 +0.03 Sun 09/11 +0.05 Fri 21/11 -1.03 Sun 30/11 +1.49 Sat 06/12 -0.68 Sat 07/02 -1.42 Sun 15/02 +0.78 Sun 22/02 -1.17 Fri 27/02 +0.06 Thu 05/03 +1.87 Mon 09/03 -0.06 Sun 15/03 -1.43 Sun 22/03 +0.90 Tue 07/04 -0.81 Sun 12/04 +1.13 Sun 19/04 -0.56 Mon 27/04 -1.16 Fri 08/05 +0.29 Wed 13/05 +1.08 Mon 18/05 -0.10 Sat 23/05 -0.43 season avg
MZKS Arka Gdynia: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 20/07 Motor Lublin 0.49 1.92 -1.43 -1.43
Fri 25/07 Radomiak Radom 0.76 0.84 -0.08 -0.75
Sun 03/08 Legia Warszawa 0.66 1.85 -1.19 -0.90
Sat 09/08 Pogoń Szczecin 0.48 1.22 -0.74 -0.86
Sat 16/08 GKS Katowice 0.59 3.44 -2.85 -1.26
Sun 24/08 KS Lechia Gdańsk 0.46 0.95 -0.49 -1.13
Fri 29/08 Wisła Płock 0.46 1.46 -1.00 -1.11
Sun 14/09 Widzew Łódź 0.97 2.43 -1.46 -1.15
Sat 20/09 MKS Korona Kielce 0.44 0.45 -0.01 -1.03
Mon 29/09 Zagłębie Lubin 0.62 1.22 -0.60 -0.98
Sat 04/10 Cracovia 1.17 0.88 +0.29 -0.87
Sat 18/10 Jagiellonia Białystok 0.70 2.79 -2.09 -0.97
Sat 25/10 Piast Gliwice 0.76 1.47 -0.71 -0.95
Sun 02/11 Górnik Zabrze 0.76 2.38 -1.62 -1.00
Sun 09/11 Lech Poznań 2.08 2.05 +0.03 -0.93
Fri 21/11 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 0.82 0.77 +0.05 -0.87
Sun 30/11 Raków Częstochowa 0.67 1.70 -1.03 -0.88
Sat 06/12 Motor Lublin 2.39 0.90 +1.49 -0.75
Sat 07/02 Legia Warszawa 0.93 1.61 -0.68 -0.74
Sun 15/02 Pogoń Szczecin 0.36 1.78 -1.42 -0.78
Sun 22/02 GKS Katowice 1.81 1.03 +0.78 -0.70
Fri 27/02 KS Lechia Gdańsk 1.17 2.34 -1.17 -0.72
Thu 05/03 Radomiak Radom 1.28 1.22 +0.06 -0.69
Mon 09/03 Wisła Płock 3.09 1.22 +1.87 -0.58
Sun 15/03 Widzew Łódź 0.60 0.66 -0.06 -0.56
Sun 22/03 MKS Korona Kielce 0.79 2.22 -1.43 -0.60
Tue 07/04 Zagłębie Lubin 1.77 0.87 +0.90 -0.54
Sun 12/04 Cracovia 0.56 1.37 -0.81 -0.55
Sun 19/04 Jagiellonia Białystok 2.60 1.47 +1.13 -0.49
Mon 27/04 Piast Gliwice 0.95 1.51 -0.56 -0.49
Fri 08/05 Lech Poznań 0.83 1.99 -1.16 -0.52
Wed 13/05 Górnik Zabrze 1.32 1.03 +0.29 -0.49
Mon 18/05 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 2.19 1.11 +1.08 -0.44
Sat 23/05 Raków Częstochowa 0.57 0.67 -0.10 -0.43

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.06 npxG and 1.49 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 3 hardest of 18 in Ekstraklasa
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 34 league matches
Last 5
number 1 hardest of 18 in Ekstraklasa
+0.20 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 34 matches · tied number 3 hardest of 18

  1. Raków Częstochowa Away +0.13
  2. Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza Home −0.22
  3. Górnik Zabrze Home +0.17
  4. Lech Poznań Away +0.63
  5. Piast Gliwice Away +0.31
  6. Jagiellonia Białystok Home −0.03
  7. Cracovia Away +0.12
  8. Zagłębie Lubin Home −0.34
  9. MKS Korona Kielce Away −0.03
  10. Widzew Łódź Home +0.03
  11. Wisła Płock Away −0.20
  12. Radomiak Radom Away −0.23
  13. KS Lechia Gdańsk Home +0.20
  14. GKS Katowice Home −0.04
  15. Pogoń Szczecin Away −0.04
  16. Legia Warszawa Home +0.13
  17. Motor Lublin Home −0.46
  18. Raków Częstochowa Home +0.13
  19. Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza Away −0.22
  20. Lech Poznań Home +0.63
  21. Górnik Zabrze Away +0.17
  22. Piast Gliwice Home +0.31
  23. Jagiellonia Białystok Away −0.03
  24. Cracovia Home +0.12
  25. Zagłębie Lubin Away −0.34
  26. MKS Korona Kielce Home −0.03
  27. Widzew Łódź Away +0.03
  28. Wisła Płock Home −0.20
  29. KS Lechia Gdańsk Away +0.20
  30. GKS Katowice Away −0.04
  31. Pogoń Szczecin Home −0.04
  32. Legia Warszawa Away +0.13
  33. Radomiak Radom Home −0.23
  34. Motor Lublin Away −0.46

Last 5

+0.20 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 1 hardest of 18

  1. Raków Częstochowa Away +0.13
  2. Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza Home −0.22
  3. Górnik Zabrze Home +0.17
  4. Lech Poznań Away +0.63
  5. Piast Gliwice Away +0.31

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

MZKS Arka Gdynia shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. MZKS Arka Gdynia take 10.6 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #18 in Ekstraklasa for volume and #8 for quality. 64% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.6 shots per match
#18/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Lech Poznań 17.5
#2 Górnik Zabrze 16.1
#3 Piast Gliwice 15.3
#4 Jagiellonia Białystok 15.3
#5 Pogoń Szczecin 14.5
#6 MKS Korona Kielce 14.5
#7 Legia Warszawa 14.4
#8 KS Lechia Gdańsk 14.4
#9 Raków Częstochowa 14.0
#10 Radomiak Radom 13.7
#11 Widzew Łódź 12.9
#12 GKS Katowice 12.8
#13 Cracovia 12.7
#14 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 12.6
#15 Zagłębie Lubin 12.1
#16 Wisła Płock 11.9
#17 Motor Lublin 11.8
#18 MZKS Arka Gdynia 10.6
League avg
13.7
Total
359 shots from 34 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#8/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 GKS Katowice 0.11
#2 Raków Częstochowa 0.10
#3 KS Lechia Gdańsk 0.10
#4 Lech Poznań 0.10
#5 MKS Korona Kielce 0.10
#6 Pogoń Szczecin 0.10
#7 Motor Lublin 0.10
#8 MZKS Arka Gdynia 0.10
#9 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 0.10
#10 Wisła Płock 0.10
#11 Cracovia 0.10
#12 Radomiak Radom 0.09
#13 Jagiellonia Białystok 0.09
#14 Legia Warszawa 0.09
#15 Górnik Zabrze 0.09
#16 Widzew Łódź 0.09
#17 Zagłębie Lubin 0.09
#18 Piast Gliwice 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
36.10 npxG from 359 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.7 shots per match
#16/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Legia Warszawa 10.5
#2 Cracovia 11.3
#3 Górnik Zabrze 11.6
#4 Piast Gliwice 11.8
#5 Widzew Łódź 12.1
#6 Raków Częstochowa 12.7
#7 Lech Poznań 12.7
#8 KS Lechia Gdańsk 13.6
#9 Radomiak Radom 13.7
#10 MKS Korona Kielce 14.0
#11 Pogoń Szczecin 14.2
#12 Jagiellonia Białystok 14.7
#13 Wisła Płock 14.8
#14 GKS Katowice 15.6
#15 Zagłębie Lubin 15.6
#16 MZKS Arka Gdynia 15.7
#17 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 16.1
#18 Motor Lublin 16.5
League avg
13.7
Total
533 shots allowed from 34 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#8/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Cracovia 0.08
#2 Zagłębie Lubin 0.08
#3 Lech Poznań 0.09
#4 Wisła Płock 0.09
#5 GKS Katowice 0.09
#6 Legia Warszawa 0.09
#7 Raków Częstochowa 0.09
#8 MZKS Arka Gdynia 0.10
#9 Widzew Łódź 0.10
#10 MKS Korona Kielce 0.10
#11 Motor Lublin 0.10
#12 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 0.10
#13 KS Lechia Gdańsk 0.10
#14 Górnik Zabrze 0.10
#15 Radomiak Radom 0.10
#16 Jagiellonia Białystok 0.10
#17 Pogoń Szczecin 0.11
#18 Piast Gliwice 0.11
League avg
0.10
Total
50.82 npxGA from 533 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

64% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 231 of 360 shots over 34 matches

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 353 of 533 shots allowed over 34 matches

How the shot figures are made →

MZKS Arka Gdynia home and away xG

MZKS Arka Gdynia per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 17 17
xG / match 1.23 0.86
xGA / match 1.34 1.83
xGD / match -0.10 -0.97
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.28 0.73

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every MZKS Arka Gdynia match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
17
xG / match
0.86
xGA / match
1.83
xGD / match
-0.97
Points
6 of 51
  1. Sat 23/05 Raków Częstochowa A xG 0.60 xGA 0.52 xGD +0.08
  2. Fri 08/05 Lech Poznań A xG 0.72 xGA 1.84 xGD -1.12
  3. Mon 27/04 Piast Gliwice A xG 1.22 xGA 2.46 P xGD -1.24
  4. Sun 12/04 Cracovia A xG 0.56 xGA 1.37 xGD -0.81
  5. Sun 22/03 MKS Korona Kielce A xG 0.81 xGA 3.01 P xGD -2.20
  6. Mon 09/03 Wisła Płock A Best underlying xG 3.08 xGA 1.21 xGD +1.87
  7. Thu 05/03 Radomiak Radom A xG 1.27 xGA 1.21 xGD +0.06
  8. Sun 15/02 Pogoń Szczecin A xG 0.36 xGA 1.78 xGD -1.42
  9. Fri 21/11 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza A xG 0.82 xGA 0.76 xGD +0.06
  10. Sun 02/11 Górnik Zabrze A xG 0.76 xGA 2.61 xGD -1.85
  11. Sat 18/10 Jagiellonia Białystok A xG 0.70 xGA 2.79 xGD -2.09
  12. Mon 29/09 Zagłębie Lubin A xG 0.62 xGA 1.22 xGD -0.60
  13. Sun 14/09 Widzew Łódź A xG 0.97 xGA 2.39 xGD -1.42
  14. Sun 24/08 KS Lechia Gdańsk A xG 0.46 xGA 0.99 xGD -0.53
  15. Sat 16/08 GKS Katowice A Weakest underlying xG 0.59 xGA 3.18 xGD -2.59
  16. Sun 03/08 Legia Warszawa A xG 0.66 xGA 1.85 xGD -1.19
  17. Sun 20/07 Motor Lublin A xG 0.49 xGA 1.92 xGD -1.43

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.18. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

MZKS Arka Gdynia in Ekstraklasa

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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