Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 14:45
Full timeRaków Częstochowa 2:5 Jagiellonia Białystok
Raków Częstochowa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. Jagiellonia Białystok won 5–2. The biggest difference was Jagiellonia Białystok's attack: 4.44 xG against 1.20 projected (+3.24). Raków Częstochowa produced 1.24 xG against 1.75 projected (−0.51).
Goals
- 23' Mahir Emreli Raków Częstochowa · 0.34 xG chance 1–0
- 31' Jesús Imaz (pen.) Jagiellonia Białystok · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
- 37' Nik Prelec Jagiellonia Białystok · 0.81 xG chance 1–2
- 56' Jakub Jendryka Raków Częstochowa · 0.05 xG chance 2–2
- 76' Guilherme Montóia (pen.) Jagiellonia Białystok · 0.82 xG chance 2–3
- 78' Ousmane Sow Jagiellonia Białystok · 0.28 xG chance 2–4
- 89' Youssuf Sylla Jagiellonia Białystok · 0.02 xG chance 2–5
The model against the result
- Raków Częstochowa
- 49%
- Draw
- 27%
- Jagiellonia Białystok
- 23% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Jagiellonia Białystok produced 3.24 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 20
- On target
- 4
- 10
- Inside the box
- 12
- 16
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.23
- Open play xG
- 0.92
- 2.88
- Set-piece xG
- 0.30
- 0.02
- Penalties
- 0
- 2
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.24 for Raków Częstochowa and 2.91 for Jagiellonia Białystok.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 5.76 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Raków Częstochowa
- Jagiellonia Białystok
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.66 xG created 1.70 xGA
- L 3.28 created, 1.19 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- W 0.83 created, 3.28 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- W 0.52 created, 0.60 conceded against MZKS Arka Gdynia
- L 1.46 created, 0.86 conceded against Wisła Płock
- L 3.02 created, 1.52 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- L 0.85 created, 2.74 conceded against Cracovia
1.41 xG created 1.77 xGA
- W 1.19 created, 3.28 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- D 2.08 created, 1.07 conceded against GKS Katowice
- W 2.05 created, 2.40 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- W 1.16 created, 0.77 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- W 0.89 created, 2.01 conceded against Motor Lublin
- L 1.08 created, 1.10 conceded against Widzew Łódź
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa to win | 2.10 | +0.6% | Lost |
| Raków Częstochowa to score | 1.18 | +0.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa | 49.1% | 43.2% | +5.8 pp | 2.04 |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.5% | −0.0 pp | 3.64 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 23.5% | 29.3% | −5.8 pp | 4.26 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa to score | 85.0% | 79.2% | +5.8 pp | 1.18 |
| Raków Częstochowa not to score | 15.0% | 20.8% | −5.8 pp | 6.65 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok to score | 72.8% | 72.3% | +0.5 pp | 1.37 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok not to score | 27.2% | 27.7% | −0.5 pp | 3.68 |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 58.9% | +4.5 pp | 1.58 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.6% | 41.1% | −4.5 pp | 2.73 |
| Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals | 54.1% | 48.5% | +5.6 pp | 1.85 |
| Raków Częstochowa at most 1 goal | 45.9% | 51.5% | −5.6 pp | 2.18 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok 2+ goals | 34.4% | 37.5% | −3.1 pp | 2.91 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok at most 1 goal | 65.6% | 62.5% | +3.1 pp | 1.52 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | 78.3% | +5.0 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.7% | 21.7% | −5.0 pp | 5.99 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 55.3% | +3.2 pp | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 44.7% | −3.2 pp | 2.41 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Raków Częstochowa sample
- 20 matches
- Jagiellonia Białystok sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.