Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 14:45
Full timeWidzew Łódź 0:0 Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Radomiak Radom's attack: 1.69 xG against 1.05 projected (+0.64).
The model against the result
- Widzew Łódź
- 48%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- Radomiak Radom
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Radomiak Radom produced 0.64 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 15
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 8
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 0.77
- 1.57
- Set-piece xG
- 0.83
- 0.18
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.59 for Widzew Łódź and 1.73 for Radomiak Radom.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 3.35 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Widzew Łódź
- Radomiak Radom
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.63 xG created 1.60 xGA
- D 2.49 created, 1.15 conceded against Motor Lublin
- D 1.79 created, 1.54 conceded against Wisła Płock
- W 1.10 created, 1.08 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- L 2.31 created, 2.09 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- D 1.29 created, 1.83 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- L 0.80 created, 1.89 conceded against Lech Poznań
1.28 xG created 1.84 xGA
- W 1.67 created, 2.00 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- L 0.73 created, 1.80 conceded against GKS Katowice
- L 2.24 created, 2.28 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- L 0.38 created, 1.68 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- D 0.78 created, 1.27 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- W 1.89 created, 2.02 conceded against Cracovia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +5.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +2.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Widzew Łódź | 48.3% | 52.9% | −4.5 pp | 2.07 |
| Draw | 29.4% | 26.1% | +3.3 pp | 3.40 |
| Radomiak Radom | 22.3% | 21.1% | +1.2 pp | 4.49 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 55.7% | +1.4 pp | 1.75 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.9% | 44.3% | −1.4 pp | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | 78.3% | −0.5 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.2% | 21.7% | +0.5 pp | 4.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 55.3% | −5.3 pp | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 44.7% | +5.3 pp | 2.00 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Widzew Łódź sample
- 20 matches
- Radomiak Radom sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.