Tromsø IL 3:2 HamKam: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

Tromsø IL Home 2.12 xG · 18 shots

HamKam Away 0.35 xG · 6 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Tromsø IL were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Tromsø IL's attack: 2.12 xG against 1.57 projected (+0.55). HamKam produced 0.35 xG against 0.81 projected (−0.46).

Goals

41' Mohamed Ofkir HamKam · 0.09 xG chance 0–1
44' Morten Bjørlo Tromsø IL · 0.02 xG chance 1–1
60' Heine Asen Larsen Tromsø IL · 0.12 xG chance 2–1
85' Vegard Erlien Tromsø IL · 0.27 xG chance 3–1
87' Vetle Skjaervik (o.g.) HamKam · 0.10 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Tromsø IL: 54% What happened
Draw: 29%
HamKam: 16%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Tromsø IL 1.57 2.12 +0.55

HamKam 0.81 0.35 -0.46

Tromsø IL produced 0.55 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Tromsø IL HamKam

Shots: 18; 6
On target: 11; 3
Inside the box: 15; 4
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.08
Open play xG: 1.72; 0.29
Set-piece xG: 0.41; 0.18
Penalties: —; —

Tromsø IL's shots add up to 2.13 xG and HamKam's to 0.47; the published figures are 2.12 and 0.35.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 2.60 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Tromsø IL
HamKam
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Tromsø IL

1.39 xG created 1.49 xGA

W 1.90 created, 0.80 conceded against HamKam
W 1.86 created, 2.69 conceded against Aalesunds FK
L 0.65 created, 2.50 conceded against Molde FK
D 1.38 created, 0.51 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
L 0.35 created, 0.65 conceded against Kristiansund BK
L 2.20 created, 1.81 conceded against Rosenborg BK

HamKam

1.00 xG created 1.71 xGA

W 1.40 created, 0.69 conceded against Vålerenga IF
D 1.59 created, 0.63 conceded against Aalesunds FK
L 0.24 created, 2.38 conceded against SK Brann
D 0.71 created, 1.13 conceded against Kristiansund BK
L 0.48 created, 2.49 conceded against Rosenborg BK
L 1.56 created, 2.92 conceded against Molde FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Tromsø IL: 3 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Tromsø IL against HamKam before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.50	+32.0%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.30	+30.2%	Lost
Tromsø IL at most 1 goal	2.50	+29.9%	Lost
Tromsø IL not to score	7.00	+27.3%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.50	+21.0%	Lost
HamKam at most 1 goal	1.25	+1.4%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.00	+0.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Tromsø IL	54.3%	62.7%	−8.4 pp	1.84
Draw	29.3%	20.9%	+8.4 pp	3.41
HamKam	16.3%	16.4%	−0.0 pp	6.13

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Tromsø IL to score	81.8%	86.4%	−4.6 pp	1.22
Tromsø IL not to score	18.2%	13.6%	+4.6 pp	5.50
HamKam to score	58.9%	60.8%	−1.9 pp	1.70
HamKam not to score	41.1%	39.2%	+1.9 pp	2.43
Both teams to score	49.9%	53.3%	−3.4 pp	2.00
Both teams not to score	50.1%	46.7%	+3.4 pp	2.00
Tromsø IL 2+ goals	48.0%	62.5%	−14.5 pp	2.08
Tromsø IL at most 1 goal	52.0%	37.5%	+14.5 pp	1.92
HamKam 2+ goals	18.9%	25.0%	−6.1 pp	5.29
HamKam at most 1 goal	81.1%	75.0%	+6.1 pp	1.23
Over 1.5 goals	73.1%	79.2%	−6.1 pp	1.37
Under 1.5 goals	26.9%	20.8%	+6.1 pp	3.72
Over 2.5 goals	43.4%	59.0%	−15.6 pp	2.30
Under 2.5 goals	56.6%	41.0%	+15.6 pp	1.77

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Tromsø IL sample: 20 matches
HamKam sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.