Wednesday, 09/09/2026 at 18:45
Full timeFC Twente 1:0 SC Telstar
FC Twente were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC Twente's attack: 2.65 xG against 2.08 projected (+0.57). SC Telstar produced 0.52 xG against 1.06 projected (−0.54).
Goals
- 65' Sondre Ørjasæter FC Twente · 0.14 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- FC Twente
- 61% What happened
- Draw
- 24%
- SC Telstar
- 16%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Twente produced 0.57 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 3
- On target
- 8
- 2
- Inside the box
- 15
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.36
- 0.18
- Set-piece xG
- 0.41
- 0.03
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.76 for FC Twente and 0.20 for SC Telstar.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 2.80 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Twente
- SC Telstar
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.24 xG created 1.08 xGA
- W 3.92 created, 0.86 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- L 1.41 created, 2.49 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
- L 1.41 created, 0.40 conceded against SC Heerenveen
- W 2.62 created, 0.80 conceded against PEC Zwolle
- W 1.76 created, 0.47 conceded against SC Cambuur
- D 2.30 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Groningen
1.74 xG created 1.63 xGA
- W 2.71 created, 0.85 conceded against Heracles Almelo
- W 1.40 created, 1.09 conceded against FC Volendam
- W 1.66 created, 2.15 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
- L 1.40 created, 2.55 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- L 1.13 created, 2.13 conceded against AFC Ajax
- D 2.12 created, 0.98 conceded against SC Cambuur
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged3 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente not to score | 15.00 | +57.1% | Lost |
| SC Telstar to win | 9.50 | +49.3% | Lost |
| FC Twente at most 1 goal | 4.00 | +44.4% | Won |
| Draw | 5.75 | +36.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | +33.7% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.00 | +28.1% | Won |
| SC Telstar 2+ goals | 3.75 | +8.1% | Lost |
| SC Telstar to score | 1.57 | +7.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente | 60.6% | 73.6% | −13.0 pp | 1.65 |
| Draw | 23.7% | 16.5% | +7.2 pp | 4.22 |
| SC Telstar | 15.7% | 10.0% | +5.8 pp | 6.36 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente to score | 89.5% | 93.6% | −4.0 pp | 1.12 |
| FC Twente not to score | 10.5% | 6.4% | +4.0 pp | 9.55 |
| SC Telstar to score | 68.4% | 58.9% | +9.5 pp | 1.46 |
| SC Telstar not to score | 31.6% | 41.1% | −9.5 pp | 3.16 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 58.9% | +3.7 pp | 1.60 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.5% | 41.1% | −3.7 pp | 2.67 |
| FC Twente 2+ goals | 63.9% | 76.6% | −12.7 pp | 1.57 |
| FC Twente at most 1 goal | 36.1% | 23.4% | +12.7 pp | 2.77 |
| SC Telstar 2+ goals | 28.8% | 25.0% | +3.8 pp | 3.47 |
| SC Telstar at most 1 goal | 71.2% | 75.0% | −3.8 pp | 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | 89.4% | −3.6 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.2% | 10.6% | +3.6 pp | 7.02 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 73.7% | −10.8 pp | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | 26.3% | +10.8 pp | 2.69 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Twente sample
- 20 matches
- SC Telstar sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.