FC Groningen 2:2 FC Twente: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 12:15

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

FC Groningen Home 1.48 xG · 21 shots

FC Twente Away 2.30 xG · 16 shots

22 FC Twente had the better chances, but it finished level

FC Twente were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was FC Twente's attack: 2.30 xG against 1.67 projected (+0.63).

Goals

6' Marko Pjaca FC Twente · 0.15 xG chance 0–1
18' Thom van Bergen FC Groningen · 0.31 xG chance 1–1
29' Tygo Land FC Groningen · 0.05 xG chance 2–1
40' Wout Weghorst FC Twente · 0.26 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Groningen: 27%
Draw: 28% What happened
FC Twente: 45%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Groningen 1.31 1.48 +0.17

FC Twente 1.67 2.30 +0.63

FC Twente produced 0.63 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Groningen FC Twente

Shots: 21; 16
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 13; 12
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.14
Open play xG: 1.24; 1.96
Set-piece xG: 0.15; 0.35
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.44 for FC Groningen and 2.32 for FC Twente.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 3.70 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Groningen
FC Twente
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Groningen

1.52 xG created 1.84 xGA

W 1.17 created, 0.64 conceded against Heracles Almelo
L 0.16 created, 1.83 conceded against AFC Ajax
W 1.55 created, 2.27 conceded against FC Utrecht
W 3.20 created, 1.01 conceded against ADO Den Haag
L 1.09 created, 4.42 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
L 1.92 created, 0.87 conceded against Fortuna Sittard

FC Twente

1.93 xG created 1.07 xGA

D 0.46 created, 1.39 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
W 3.92 created, 0.86 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
L 1.41 created, 2.49 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
L 1.41 created, 0.40 conceded against SC Heerenveen
W 2.62 created, 0.80 conceded against PEC Zwolle
W 1.76 created, 0.47 conceded against SC Cambuur

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Groningen: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Groningen against FC Twente before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.80	+6.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Groningen	27.4%	28.8%	−1.3 pp	3.65
Draw	28.1%	25.0%	+3.1 pp	3.56
FC Twente	44.5%	46.3%	−1.8 pp	2.25

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.8%	64.5%	+0.3 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	35.2%	35.5%	−0.3 pp	2.84
Over 1.5 goals	83.7%	82.8%	+0.9 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.3%	17.2%	−0.9 pp	6.12
Over 2.5 goals	59.0%	61.0%	−2.1 pp	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.0%	39.0%	+2.1 pp	2.44

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Groningen sample: 20 matches
FC Twente sample: 20 matches
Computed: 21 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 21 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.