Sparta Rotterdam 2:2 PEC Zwolle: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Friday, 04/09/2026 at 20:00

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam Home 2.23 xG · 21 shots

PEC Zwolle Away 1.07 xG · 15 shots

22 Sparta Rotterdam had the better chances, but it finished level

Sparta Rotterdam were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Sparta Rotterdam's attack: 2.23 xG against 1.63 projected (+0.60). PEC Zwolle produced 1.07 xG against 1.35 projected (−0.28).

Goals

21' Ibrahim Cissoko PEC Zwolle · 0.07 xG chance 0–1
24' Milan Zonneveld Sparta Rotterdam · 0.11 xG chance 1–1
69' Isaac Babadi Sparta Rotterdam · 0.23 xG chance 2–1
80' Koen Kostons PEC Zwolle · 0.03 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam: 42%
Draw: 28% What happened
PEC Zwolle: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1.63 2.23 +0.60

PEC Zwolle 1.35 1.07 -0.28

Sparta Rotterdam produced 0.60 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sparta Rotterdam PEC Zwolle

Shots: 21; 15
On target: 8; 6
Inside the box: 15; 10
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.79; 0.77
Set-piece xG: 0.50; 0.32
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.23 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.07 for PEC Zwolle.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

36 shots · 3.38 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sparta Rotterdam

1.48 xG created 2.16 xGA

L 0.86 created, 3.92 conceded against FC Twente
L 1.76 created, 0.95 conceded against Excelsior
L 1.01 created, 3.53 conceded against Feyenoord
W 2.55 created, 1.40 conceded against SC Telstar
D 1.73 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Utrecht
L 0.97 created, 1.21 conceded against Excelsior

PEC Zwolle

1.06 xG created 1.94 xGA

W 0.62 created, 1.00 conceded against Heracles Almelo
L 0.80 created, 3.21 conceded against Feyenoord
L 0.59 created, 1.97 conceded against AFC Ajax
L 0.80 created, 2.62 conceded against FC Twente
W 1.55 created, 0.85 conceded against SC Heerenveen
L 1.98 created, 1.98 conceded against NEC Nijmegen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Sparta Rotterdam: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sparta Rotterdam against PEC Zwolle before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
PEC Zwolle to win	4.00	+17.3%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+4.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam	42.4%	51.0%	−8.6 pp	2.36
Draw	28.3%	25.5%	+2.8 pp	3.54
PEC Zwolle	29.3%	23.6%	+5.8 pp	3.41

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.3%	64.5%	+0.8 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.7%	35.5%	−0.8 pp	2.89
Over 1.5 goals	83.8%	82.8%	+1.0 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.2%	17.2%	−1.0 pp	6.17
Over 2.5 goals	59.2%	61.0%	−1.9 pp	1.69
Under 2.5 goals	40.8%	39.0%	+1.9 pp	2.45

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sparta Rotterdam sample: 20 matches
PEC Zwolle sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.