Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeWillem II Tilburg 0:3 Excelsior
Excelsior were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Willem II Tilburg's attack: 0.86 xG against 1.37 projected (−0.51).
Goals
- 8' David Garden Excelsior · 0.89 xG chance 0–1
- 34' Rick Meissen Excelsior · 0.24 xG chance 0–2
- 85' Irakli Yegoian Excelsior · 0.05 xG chance 0–3
The model against the result
- Willem II Tilburg
- 31%
- Draw
- 29%
- Excelsior
- 40% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Willem II Tilburg produced 0.51 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 13
- On target
- 2
- 6
- Inside the box
- 11
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 0.60
- 1.27
- Set-piece xG
- 0.14
- 0.34
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.74 for Willem II Tilburg and 1.60 for Excelsior.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 2.35 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Willem II Tilburg
- Excelsior
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.55 xG created 2.26 xGA
1.42 xG created 1.22 xGA
- W 2.58 created, 1.14 conceded against FC Groningen
- D 0.38 created, 0.46 conceded against FC Volendam
- W 0.95 created, 1.76 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- W 2.87 created, 0.72 conceded against SC Cambuur
- L 0.51 created, 2.24 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
- W 1.21 created, 0.97 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +0.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg | 30.8% | 30.6% | +0.2 pp | 3.24 |
| Draw | 28.7% | 27.1% | +1.6 pp | 3.48 |
| Excelsior | 40.4% | 42.2% | −1.8 pp | 2.47 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 60.8% | +4.3 pp | 1.54 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.9% | 39.2% | −4.3 pp | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | 79.2% | +4.2 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.7% | 20.8% | −4.2 pp | 6.01 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 58.2% | +0.1 pp | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 41.8% | −0.1 pp | 2.40 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Willem II Tilburg sample
- 3 matches
- Excelsior sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Willem II Tilburg has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.