Fantasy Premier League

Differentials worth owning

A player nobody owns is not a differential on his own — most of them are players nobody owns for a reason. Every row here clears an ownership threshold and a minutes floor, is ranked on the model's own currency, and says how much of its edge is the projection and how much is only the field's absence.

The field's biggest blind spot

Thierno Barry

FWD · EVE · 5.7m · owned by 8.3%

+3.34

Edge

That is 17.0 projected points over the next 8 rounds, which is what the board under it is ranked on.

Gameweek 6 · 8-round window · feed of 01/10 11:39

Thierno Barry is the best-projected player in the game owned by under 10%: 17.0 over 8 rounds at 5.7m, held by 8.3%.

He is behind Erling Haaland, the most-owned player in his position at 74%, on projection by −3.40, and +6.74 of his edge is the field he is not in. That is what a player nobody owns for a reason looks like from here: the ownership is the whole of the case.

Own

8.3%

The share of managers holding him, against the 10% gate this board opens at.

Proj edge

−3.40

What the model rates him over the most-owned player in his position. Positive is football; negative means the only case for him is that nobody owns him.

Own edge

+6.74

What the field's absence is worth at what the template is worth. The two halves add up to his whole edge.

What the minutes floor took

269 low-owned players are left off because the minutes model puts them under 45% to start.

See the minutes board →

The top five on this board

The board as your controls leave it — the same five that open the table below.

Ranked 1 Thierno Barry

FWD EVE vs

17.0 Ahead

Own

8.3%

Proj edge

−3.40

Own edge

+6.74

Against Erling Haaland
3.0
1. HUL (A)
2. CHE (H)
3. ARS (A)
4. !
5. COV (H)
6. BRE (A)
7. LIV (H)
8. AVL (A)
Ranked 2 Alex Scott

MID BOU vs

17.0 Ahead

Own

5.8%

Proj edge

+1.69

Own edge

+2.65

Against Morgan Rogers
3.0
1. CHE (A)
2. SUN (H)
3. MUN (A)
4. LEE (H)
5. IPS (A)
6. NFO (H)
7. FUL (A)
8. BHA (H)
Ranked 3 Bobby Thomas

DEF COV vs

16.9 Ahead

Own

8.5%

Proj edge

+1.01

Own edge

+3.32

Against Riccardo Calafiori
3.0
1. NEW (H)
2. TOT (A)
3. FUL (H)
4. SUN (H)
5. EVE (A)
6. CRY (H)
7. LEE (A)
8. IPS (H)
Ranked 4 Anton Stach

MID LEE vs

16.7 Ahead

Own

2.5%

Proj edge

+1.44

Own edge

+2.90

Against Morgan Rogers
3.5
1. ARS (A)
2. MUN (H)
3. SUN (A)
4. BOU (A)
5. TOT (H)
6. CHE (A)
7. COV (H)
8. MCI (A)
Ranked 5 Marcus Tavernier

MID BOU vs

16.7 Ahead

Own

6.8%

Proj edge

+1.39

Own edge

+2.57

Against Morgan Rogers
3.0
1. CHE (A)
2. SUN (H)
3. MUN (A)
4. LEE (H)
5. IPS (A)
6. NFO (H)
7. FUL (A)
8. BHA (H)

Position

All GKP DEF MID FWD

Owned by under

10% 7% 5% 3%

Minutes played

Any 90+ 270+ 450+ 900+

At least

Any Very safe Safe Rotation risk

Rounds ahead

3 rounds 5 rounds 8 rounds

Price

Enter your squad to mark what you already own and what you could afford →

Showing 40 of 181 players

Player Price Pts Ahead Own Proj edge Own edge Start Next fixtures

1 Thierno Barry FWD vs EVE 5.7m 4.0 17.0 8.3% −3.40 +6.74 92%

HUL (A)
CHE (H)
ARS (A)
!
COV (H)
BRE (A)
LIV (H)
AVL (A)

1 Thierno Barry 17.0

FWD vs EVE · 5.7m · 8.3% 92%

Proj edge: −3.40
Own edge: +6.74
Pts: 4.0

Against Erling Haaland

HUL (A)
CHE (H)
ARS (A)
!
COV (H)
BRE (A)
LIV (H)
AVL (A)

2 Alex Scott MID vs BOU 6.1m 4.0 17.0 5.8% +1.69 +2.65 92%

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

2 Alex Scott 17.0

MID vs BOU · 6.1m · 5.8% 92%

Proj edge: +1.69
Own edge: +2.65
Pts: 4.0

Against Morgan Rogers

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

3 Bobby Thomas DEF vs COV 4.0m 4.4 16.9 8.5% +1.01 +3.32 92%

NEW (H)
TOT (A)
FUL (H)
SUN (H)
EVE (A)
CRY (H)
LEE (A)
IPS (H)

3 Bobby Thomas 16.9

DEF vs COV · 4.0m · 8.5% 92%

Proj edge: +1.01
Own edge: +3.32
Pts: 4.4

Against Riccardo Calafiori

NEW (H)
TOT (A)
FUL (H)
SUN (H)
EVE (A)
CRY (H)
LEE (A)
IPS (H)

4 Anton Stach MID vs LEE 6.0m 3.7 16.7 2.5% +1.44 +2.90 92%

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)
CHE (A)
COV (H)
MCI (A)

4 Anton Stach 16.7

MID vs LEE · 6.0m · 2.5% 92%

Proj edge: +1.44
Own edge: +2.90
Pts: 3.7

Against Morgan Rogers

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)
CHE (A)
COV (H)
MCI (A)

5 Marcus Tavernier MID vs BOU 6.1m 3.9 16.7 6.8% +1.39 +2.57 92%

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

5 Marcus Tavernier 16.7

MID vs BOU · 6.1m · 6.8% 92%

Proj edge: +1.39
Own edge: +2.57
Pts: 3.9

Against Morgan Rogers

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

6 António Silva DEF vs BOU 5.0m 3.8 16.5 0.4% +0.66 +3.96 92%

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

6 António Silva 16.5

DEF vs BOU · 5.0m · 0.4% 92%

Proj edge: +0.66
Own edge: +3.96
Pts: 3.8

Against Riccardo Calafiori

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

7 Vitaly Janelt MID vs BRE 5.0m 4.0 16.5 2.5% +1.18 +2.90 92%

AVL (A)
LIV (H)
HUL (A)
NFO (H)
BHA (A)
EVE (H)
MUN (A)
ARS (H)

7 Vitaly Janelt 16.5

MID vs BRE · 5.0m · 2.5% 92%

Proj edge: +1.18
Own edge: +2.90
Pts: 4.0

Against Morgan Rogers

AVL (A)
LIV (H)
HUL (A)
NFO (H)
BHA (A)
EVE (H)
MUN (A)
ARS (H)

8 Gonzalo García FWD vs FUL 6.0m 3.9 16.4 4.0% −4.10 +7.18 92%

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)
MCI (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)

8 Gonzalo García 16.4

FWD vs FUL · 6.0m · 4.0% 92%

Proj edge: −4.10
Own edge: +7.18
Pts: 3.9

Against Erling Haaland

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)
MCI (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)

9 Igor Thiago FWD vs BRE 7.8m 3.9 16.2 9.1% −4.21 +6.66 92%

AVL (A)
LIV (H)
HUL (A)
NFO (H)
BHA (A)
EVE (H)
MUN (A)
ARS (H)

9 Igor Thiago 16.2

FWD vs BRE · 7.8m · 9.1% 92%

Proj edge: −4.21
Own edge: +6.66
Pts: 3.9

Against Erling Haaland

AVL (A)
LIV (H)
HUL (A)
NFO (H)
BHA (A)
EVE (H)
MUN (A)
ARS (H)

10 Granit Xhaka MID vs SUN 5.5m 4.0 16.1 3.6% +0.87 +2.81 92%

BHA (H)
BOU (A)
LEE (H)
COV (A)
CHE (H)
AVL (A)
TOT (H)
LIV (A)

10 Granit Xhaka 16.1

MID vs SUN · 5.5m · 3.6% 92%

Proj edge: +0.87
Own edge: +2.81
Pts: 4.0

Against Morgan Rogers

BHA (H)
BOU (A)
LEE (H)
COV (A)
CHE (H)
AVL (A)
TOT (H)
LIV (A)

11 Enzo Le Fée MID vs SUN 5.7m 4.0 16.0 3.4% +0.76 +2.83 92%

BHA (H)
BOU (A)
LEE (H)
COV (A)
CHE (H)
AVL (A)
TOT (H)
LIV (A)

11 Enzo Le Fée 16.0

MID vs SUN · 5.7m · 3.4% 92%

Proj edge: +0.76
Own edge: +2.83
Pts: 4.0

Against Morgan Rogers

BHA (H)
BOU (A)
LEE (H)
COV (A)
CHE (H)
AVL (A)
TOT (H)
LIV (A)

12 John Egan DEF vs HUL 4.1m 4.0 15.9 7.0% +0.08 +3.44 92%

EVE (H)
FUL (A)
BRE (H)
IPS (H)
ARS (A)
BHA (H)
CRY (A)
NFO (H)

12 John Egan 15.9

DEF vs HUL · 4.1m · 7.0% 92%

Proj edge: +0.08
Own edge: +3.44
Pts: 4.0

Against Riccardo Calafiori

EVE (H)
FUL (A)
BRE (H)
IPS (H)
ARS (A)
BHA (H)
CRY (A)
NFO (H)

13 James Trafford GKP vs LEE 5.0m 3.7 15.7 5.5% −0.54 +3.00 92%

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)
CHE (A)
COV (H)
MCI (A)

13 James Trafford 15.7

GKP vs LEE · 5.0m · 5.5% 92%

Proj edge: −0.54
Own edge: +3.00
Pts: 3.7

Against David Raya Martín

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)
CHE (A)
COV (H)
MCI (A)

14 Tarik Muharemović DEF vs LEE 5.0m 3.5 15.6 4.3% −0.23 +3.65 92%

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)
CHE (A)
COV (H)
MCI (A)

14 Tarik Muharemović 15.6

DEF vs LEE · 5.0m · 4.3% 92%

Proj edge: −0.23
Own edge: +3.65
Pts: 3.5

Against Riccardo Calafiori

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)
CHE (A)
COV (H)
MCI (A)

15 Murillo DEF vs NFO 5.5m 3.8 15.2 2.1% −0.61 +3.82 92%

CRY (A)
ARS (H)
IPS (A)
BRE (A)
MCI (H)
BOU (A)
CHE (H)
HUL (A)

15 Murillo 15.2

DEF vs NFO · 5.5m · 2.1% 92%

Proj edge: −0.61
Own edge: +3.82
Pts: 3.8

Against Riccardo Calafiori

CRY (A)
ARS (H)
IPS (A)
BRE (A)
MCI (H)
BOU (A)
CHE (H)
HUL (A)

16 Senne Lammens GKP vs MUN 4.9m 3.8 15.1 9.9% −1.16 +2.64 92%

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)
LIV (A)
BRE (H)
NEW (A)

16 Senne Lammens 15.1

GKP vs MUN · 4.9m · 9.9% 92%

Proj edge: −1.16
Own edge: +2.64
Pts: 3.8

Against David Raya Martín

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)
LIV (A)
BRE (H)
NEW (A)

17 Alisson Becker GKP vs LIV 5.5m 3.6 15.0 4.1% −1.22 +3.11 92%

MCI (H)
BRE (A)
BHA (H)
ARS (H)
CRY (A)
MUN (H)
EVE (A)
SUN (H)

17 Alisson Becker 15.0

GKP vs LIV · 5.5m · 4.1% 92%

Proj edge: −1.22
Own edge: +3.11
Pts: 3.6

Against David Raya Martín

MCI (H)
BRE (A)
BHA (H)
ARS (H)
CRY (A)
MUN (H)
EVE (A)
SUN (H)

18 Josh King MID vs FUL 5.5m 3.5 14.9 2.6% −0.35 +2.89 92%

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)
MCI (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)

18 Josh King 14.9

MID vs FUL · 5.5m · 2.6% 92%

Proj edge: −0.35
Own edge: +2.89
Pts: 3.5

Against Morgan Rogers

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)
MCI (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)

19 Chris Richards DEF vs CRY 4.9m 3.8 14.9 0.6% −0.91 +3.94 92%

NFO (H)
BHA (A)
NEW (H)
TOT (A)
LIV (H)
COV (A)
HUL (H)
CHE (A)

19 Chris Richards 14.9

DEF vs CRY · 4.9m · 0.6% 92%

Proj edge: −0.91
Own edge: +3.94
Pts: 3.8

Against Riccardo Calafiori

NFO (H)
BHA (A)
NEW (H)
TOT (A)
LIV (H)
COV (A)
HUL (H)
CHE (A)

20 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall MID vs EVE 6.6m 3.5 14.8 6.0% −0.40 +2.63 92%

HUL (A)
CHE (H)
ARS (A)
!
COV (H)
BRE (A)
LIV (H)
AVL (A)

20 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 14.8

MID vs EVE · 6.6m · 6.0% 92%

Proj edge: −0.40
Own edge: +2.63
Pts: 3.5

Against Morgan Rogers

HUL (A)
CHE (H)
ARS (A)
!
COV (H)
BRE (A)
LIV (H)
AVL (A)

21 Jarrad Branthwaite DEF vs EVE 5.5m 3.6 14.8 2.4% −0.96 +3.80 92%

HUL (A)
CHE (H)
ARS (A)
!
COV (H)
BRE (A)
LIV (H)
AVL (A)

21 Jarrad Branthwaite 14.8

DEF vs EVE · 5.5m · 2.4% 92%

Proj edge: −0.96
Own edge: +3.80
Pts: 3.6

Against Riccardo Calafiori

HUL (A)
CHE (H)
ARS (A)
!
COV (H)
BRE (A)
LIV (H)
AVL (A)

22 Ethan Ampadu MID vs LEE 5.4m 3.4 14.8 0.9% −0.45 +3.02 92%

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)
CHE (A)
COV (H)
MCI (A)

22 Ethan Ampadu 14.8

MID vs LEE · 5.4m · 0.9% 92%

Proj edge: −0.45
Own edge: +3.02
Pts: 3.4

Against Morgan Rogers

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)
CHE (A)
COV (H)
MCI (A)

23 James Hill DEF vs BOU 5.5m 3.4 14.6 0.8% −1.18 +3.93 92%

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

23 James Hill 14.6

DEF vs BOU · 5.5m · 0.8% 92%

Proj edge: −1.18
Own edge: +3.93
Pts: 3.4

Against Riccardo Calafiori

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

24 Oli McBurnie FWD vs HUL 5.5m 3.6 14.5 1.9% −6.02 +7.40 92%

EVE (H)
FUL (A)
BRE (H)
IPS (H)
ARS (A)
BHA (H)
CRY (A)
NFO (H)

24 Oli McBurnie 14.5

FWD vs HUL · 5.5m · 1.9% 92%

Proj edge: −6.02
Own edge: +7.40
Pts: 3.6

Against Erling Haaland

EVE (H)
FUL (A)
BRE (H)
IPS (H)
ARS (A)
BHA (H)
CRY (A)
NFO (H)

25 Sven Botman DEF vs NEW 5.0m 3.5 14.5 0.7% −1.34 +3.93 92%

COV (A)
AVL (H)
CRY (A)
!
FUL (A)
ARS (H)
BHA (A)
MUN (H)

25 Sven Botman 14.5

DEF vs NEW · 5.0m · 0.7% 92%

Proj edge: −1.34
Own edge: +3.93
Pts: 3.5

Against Riccardo Calafiori

COV (A)
AVL (H)
CRY (A)
!
FUL (A)
ARS (H)
BHA (A)
MUN (H)

26 Matheus Cunha MID vs MUN 7.9m 3.6 14.4 5.8% −0.84 +2.65 92%

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)
LIV (A)
BRE (H)
NEW (A)

26 Matheus Cunha 14.4

MID vs MUN · 7.9m · 5.8% 92%

Proj edge: −0.84
Own edge: +2.65
Pts: 3.6

Against Morgan Rogers

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)
LIV (A)
BRE (H)
NEW (A)

27 Evanilson FWD vs BOU 6.0m 3.4 14.3 3.2% −6.14 +7.26 92%

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

27 Evanilson 14.3

FWD vs BOU · 6.0m · 3.2% 92%

Proj edge: −6.14
Own edge: +7.26
Pts: 3.4

Against Erling Haaland

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

28 Bernd Leno GKP vs FUL 4.5m 3.3 14.3 3.4% −1.92 +3.17 92%

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)
MCI (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)

28 Bernd Leno 14.3

GKP vs FUL · 4.5m · 3.4% 92%

Proj edge: −1.92
Own edge: +3.17
Pts: 3.3

Against David Raya Martín

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)
MCI (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)

29 Emersonn FWD vs IPS 5.5m 3.6 14.3 3.5% −6.17 +7.23 92%

FUL (H)
MCI (A)
NFO (H)
HUL (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)
AVL (H)
COV (A)

29 Emersonn 14.3

FWD vs IPS · 5.5m · 3.5% 92%

Proj edge: −6.17
Own edge: +7.23
Pts: 3.6

Against Erling Haaland

FUL (H)
MCI (A)
NFO (H)
HUL (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)
AVL (H)
COV (A)

30 Gianluigi Donnarumma GKP vs MCI 5.5m 3.3 14.3 7.6% −1.93 +2.82 92%

LIV (A)
IPS (H)
AVL (A)
BHA (H)
NFO (A)
FUL (H)
ARS (A)
LEE (H)

30 Gianluigi Donnarumma 14.3

GKP vs MCI · 5.5m · 7.6% 92%

Proj edge: −1.93
Own edge: +2.82
Pts: 3.3

Against David Raya Martín

LIV (A)
IPS (H)
AVL (A)
BHA (H)
NFO (A)
FUL (H)
ARS (A)
LEE (H)

31 Kristoffer Ajer DEF vs BRE 4.5m 3.4 14.2 3.9% −1.59 +3.68 92%

AVL (A)
LIV (H)
HUL (A)
NFO (H)
BHA (A)
EVE (H)
MUN (A)
ARS (H)

31 Kristoffer Ajer 14.2

DEF vs BRE · 4.5m · 3.9% 92%

Proj edge: −1.59
Own edge: +3.68
Pts: 3.4

Against Riccardo Calafiori

AVL (A)
LIV (H)
HUL (A)
NFO (H)
BHA (A)
EVE (H)
MUN (A)
ARS (H)

32 James Justin DEF vs LEE 4.5m 3.2 14.2 1.4% −1.63 +3.88 92%

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)
CHE (A)
COV (H)
MCI (A)

32 James Justin 14.2

DEF vs LEE · 4.5m · 1.4% 92%

Proj edge: −1.63
Own edge: +3.88
Pts: 3.2

Against Riccardo Calafiori

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)
CHE (A)
COV (H)
MCI (A)

33 Elliot Anderson MID vs MCI 6.3m 3.2 14.1 4.0% −1.10 +2.78 92%

LIV (A)
IPS (H)
AVL (A)
BHA (H)
NFO (A)
FUL (H)
ARS (A)
LEE (H)

33 Elliot Anderson 14.1

MID vs MCI · 6.3m · 4.0% 92%

Proj edge: −1.10
Own edge: +2.78
Pts: 3.2

Against Morgan Rogers

LIV (A)
IPS (H)
AVL (A)
BHA (H)
NFO (A)
FUL (H)
ARS (A)
LEE (H)

34 Adrien Truffert DEF vs BOU 5.4m 3.3 14.1 3.0% −1.65 +3.75 92%

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

34 Adrien Truffert 14.1

DEF vs BOU · 5.4m · 3.0% 92%

Proj edge: −1.65
Own edge: +3.75
Pts: 3.3

Against Riccardo Calafiori

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)
NFO (H)
FUL (A)
BHA (H)

35 Youri Tielemans MID vs MUN 5.8m 3.5 14.0 1.5% −1.21 +2.97 92%

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)
LIV (A)
BRE (H)
NEW (A)

35 Youri Tielemans 14.0

MID vs MUN · 5.8m · 1.5% 92%

Proj edge: −1.21
Own edge: +2.97
Pts: 3.5

Against Morgan Rogers

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)
LIV (A)
BRE (H)
NEW (A)

36 Luka Vušković DEF vs BHA 5.0m 3.1 14.0 3.7% −1.77 +3.70 92%

SUN (A)
CRY (H)
LIV (A)
MCI (A)
BRE (H)
HUL (A)
NEW (H)
BOU (A)

36 Luka Vušković 14.0

DEF vs BHA · 5.0m · 3.7% 92%

Proj edge: −1.77
Own edge: +3.70
Pts: 3.1

Against Riccardo Calafiori

SUN (A)
CRY (H)
LIV (A)
MCI (A)
BRE (H)
HUL (A)
NEW (H)
BOU (A)

37 Emiliano Buendía Stati MID vs AVL 5.9m 3.4 14.0 1.0% −1.28 +3.01 92%

BRE (H)
NEW (A)
MCI (H)
FUL (H)
MUN (A)
SUN (H)
IPS (A)
EVE (H)

37 Emiliano Buendía Stati 14.0

MID vs AVL · 5.9m · 1.0% 92%

Proj edge: −1.28
Own edge: +3.01
Pts: 3.4

Against Morgan Rogers

BRE (H)
NEW (A)
MCI (H)
FUL (H)
MUN (A)
SUN (H)
IPS (A)
EVE (H)

38 Caoimhín Kelleher GKP vs BRE 5.0m 3.3 13.9 6.1% −2.32 +2.95 92%

AVL (A)
LIV (H)
HUL (A)
NFO (H)
BHA (A)
EVE (H)
MUN (A)
ARS (H)

38 Caoimhín Kelleher 13.9

GKP vs BRE · 5.0m · 6.1% 92%

Proj edge: −2.32
Own edge: +2.95
Pts: 3.3

Against David Raya Martín

AVL (A)
LIV (H)
HUL (A)
NFO (H)
BHA (A)
EVE (H)
MUN (A)
ARS (H)

39 Alex Iwobi MID vs FUL 5.4m 3.3 13.8 0.7% −1.41 +3.03 92%

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)
MCI (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)

39 Alex Iwobi 13.8

MID vs FUL · 5.4m · 0.7% 92%

Proj edge: −1.41
Own edge: +3.03
Pts: 3.3

Against Morgan Rogers

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)
MCI (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)

40 Julio Enciso MID vs IPS 5.5m 3.5 13.8 0.8% −1.41 +3.03 92%

FUL (H)
MCI (A)
NFO (H)
HUL (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)
AVL (H)
COV (A)

40 Julio Enciso 13.8

MID vs IPS · 5.5m · 0.8% 92%

Proj edge: −1.41
Own edge: +3.03
Pts: 3.5

Against Morgan Rogers

FUL (H)
MCI (A)
NFO (H)
HUL (A)
BOU (H)
TOT (A)
AVL (H)
COV (A)

each row's Ahead, drawn to scale every bar on one axis of 0 to 20

What an edge is here, and what it is measured against

Every row is owned by under 10% of the game. The threshold is the page's premise rather than a sort: the ranking under it is the weighted score for the rounds ahead, which is a unit this model is measured in.

The two edge columns are one figure split in two, under the rule this app already trades points against ownership by — points times one minus 0.5 times ownership, which is the captain shortlist's own aggressive setting. They add up to the whole edge exactly, so a reader can check the pair rather than trust it.

The template is the most-owned player the game has in that position, taken off the whole board rather than off the filtered rows — a differential is measured against the field, not against the least contrarian row left on the screen. A position the game has published nobody's ownership for has no template, and both columns print a dash rather than a nought.

The minutes floor is the projection's own start probability at 45%. It is the largest way a list like this goes wrong, so it is a gate rather than a column — and nothing on this site backtests the ownership half of the split.

A player the game has published no ownership figure for is left off rather than counted as owned by nobody. Missing is not nought, and the one place that mistake does the most damage is a board about ownership.

Every ranking here is in expected points or in the weighted score for the rounds ahead, which are the units this model is measured in. The value column is those figures restated over a price — it is a way of scanning the board, and nothing on this site backtests it.

Bonus points are projected nowhere on this site, so they are in none of these figures.

The board is every player the game would let you field, the flagged included — whether a doubtful player is worth picking is a judgement the projection makes with his published chance of playing, not one made by hiding him.

What is measured here, and what is not

Measured The projected points

Replayed against gameweek 2 after it was played: an average miss of 1.617 points a player, against 1.842 for “predict what he has averaged so far”, over 456 players. Recorded Sunday, 6 September 2026 and refreshed by hand, so the date is part of the claim.