Fantasy Premier League
Who has the fixtures
Every club's run ahead, coloured by the chances this site's model gives each club of winning and losing each match rather than by the rating Fantasy sets in July and never moves. The three totals are goals — what the model expects each club to score across its run, to concede, and the difference between them.
Gameweek 6 · 3-round window · feed of 01/10 11:40
Arsenal have the best run ahead: +1.70 goals of expected margin over 3 fixtures — 4.48 expected for, 2.78 against.
The hardest run belongs to Leeds United, at −1.45 over 3 fixtures.
20 clubs, 60 fixtures in the rounds ahead: 0 doubles, 0 blanks.
| Club | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | Matches | For | Against | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | LEE (H) | NFO (A) | EVE (H) | 3 | 4.48 | 2.78 | +1.70 |
| Manchester United | TOT (H) | LEE (A) | BOU (H) | 3 | 5.14 | 3.45 | +1.69 |
| Manchester City | LIV (A) | IPS (H) | AVL (A) | 3 | 5.11 | 4.10 | +1.00 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | SUN (A) | CRY (H) | LIV (A) | 3 | 4.72 | 4.33 | +0.39 |
| Chelsea | BOU (H) | EVE (A) | TOT (H) | 3 | 4.32 | 3.98 | +0.34 |
| Sunderland | BHA (H) | BOU (A) | LEE (H) | 3 | 4.40 | 4.13 | +0.28 |
| Liverpool | MCI (H) | BRE (A) | BHA (H) | 3 | 4.52 | 4.25 | +0.27 |
| Coventry City | NEW (H) | TOT (A) | FUL (H) | 3 | 4.18 | 3.95 | +0.24 |
| Fulham | IPS (A) | HUL (H) | COV (A) | 3 | 4.39 | 4.22 | +0.17 |
| Brentford | AVL (A) | LIV (H) | HUL (A) | 3 | 4.25 | 4.24 | +0.01 |
| Hull City | EVE (H) | FUL (A) | BRE (H) | 3 | 4.04 | 4.17 | −0.13 |
| Crystal Palace | NFO (H) | BHA (A) | NEW (H) | 3 | 4.06 | 4.31 | −0.25 |
| Bournemouth | CHE (A) | SUN (H) | MUN (A) | 3 | 4.01 | 4.44 | −0.44 |
| Aston Villa | BRE (H) | NEW (A) | MCI (H) | 3 | 4.13 | 4.59 | −0.45 |
| Nottingham Forest | CRY (A) | ARS (H) | IPS (A) | 3 | 3.67 | 4.12 | −0.45 |
| Ipswich Town | FUL (H) | MCI (A) | NFO (H) | 3 | 4.34 | 4.83 | −0.49 |
| Everton | HUL (A) | CHE (H) | ARS (A) | 3 | 3.71 | 4.35 | −0.65 |
| Newcastle United | COV (A) | AVL (H) | CRY (A) | 3 | 3.79 | 4.59 | −0.80 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | MUN (A) | COV (H) | CHE (A) | 3 | 3.51 | 4.51 | −1.00 |
| Leeds United | ARS (A) | MUN (H) | SUN (A) | 3 | 3.26 | 4.71 | −1.45 |
What a run total is, and what it is not
- Each cell is banded one to five, easiest first, cut from the chances this site's model gives the club in that match — its chance of winning less its chance of losing. Fantasy's own one-to-five is set by hand before the season and never moves; this one moves as the season does, so the two disagree on purpose.
- There is no fixture score out of ten here and there deliberately is not one. A 0–10 score needs a population to normalise against and a policy for rescaling it as the season moves, and neither is a decision this site could make honestly — a run of 7.4 would mean one thing against a competition whose best attack is fitted at 2.4 goals a game and another against one whose best is at 1.9, and nothing here could check either.
- So the three totals are goals, summed over the club's fixtures in the next 3 rounds and never rescaled. A margin of two means two goals of expected difference, in October and in March alike.
- A total is only readable against how many matches it is over, which is why the match count sits beside it. A club with a blank in its run has fewer matches in every total — its attack total is smaller and its goals-against total is smaller, and neither is a compliment.
- A blank is a club with no fixture in the round and contributes nothing rather than an average of its other weeks. A week drawn as pending is a club owed a match Fantasy has taken out of a round and not yet put back: it looks blank and may not stay that way, which is why it is not drawn as one.
- A fixture this site could not price is marked in its cell and left out of the three totals. The match is on and both clubs are known; what is missing is our own rates for it, and averaging it in would invent the figure the mark exists to admit is absent.
- A club's name links to every player it fields, on the board. The fixtures are a reason to look at a squad rather than a recommendation about one — a soft run is worth nothing to a player who does not start.
- The rates behind every band are fitted from twenty matches of non-penalty expected goals, with the recent ones counting for more, for this attack against this defence. Nothing on this page is projected, nothing is a points figure, and none of it is backtested as a forecast of a result.
- 1 5 Easiest to hardest, cut from the chances of winning and losing this site's model gives the match
- — Blank — no fixture, and nothing outstanding
- ? Not yet scheduled into a gameweek
- ! Fixture this site could not price
What is measured here, and what is not
-
Measured The projected points
Replayed against gameweek 2 after it was played: an average miss of 1.617 points a player, against 1.842 for “predict what he has averaged so far”, over 456 players. Recorded Sunday, 6 September 2026 and refreshed by hand, so the date is part of the claim.