NK Istra 1961 2:2 GNK Dinamo Zagreb: xG & match report · HNL

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · HNL

NK Istra 1961 Home 0.84 xG · 4 shots

GNK Dinamo Zagreb Away 2.06 xG · 18 shots

22 GNK Dinamo Zagreb had the better chances, but it finished level

GNK Dinamo Zagreb were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was GNK Dinamo Zagreb's attack: 2.06 xG against 1.62 projected (+0.44).

Goals

14' Hamza Jaganjac NK Istra 1961 · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
24' Dion Drena Beljo GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.49 xG chance 1–1
29' Dukan Ahmeti NK Istra 1961 · 0.28 xG chance 2–1
84' Smail Prevljak GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.23 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Istra 1961: 19%
Draw: 29% What happened
GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 53%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Istra 1961 0.93 0.84 -0.09

GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1.62 2.06 +0.44

GNK Dinamo Zagreb produced 0.44 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Istra 1961 GNK Dinamo Zagreb

Shots: 4; 18
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 3; 14
xG per shot: 0.22; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.88; 1.67
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.27
Penalties: —; —

NK Istra 1961's shots add up to 0.88 xG and GNK Dinamo Zagreb's to 1.94; the published figures are 0.84 and 2.06.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 2.82 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

NK Istra 1961
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Istra 1961

1.48 xG created 1.45 xGA

D 1.17 created, 0.55 conceded against HNK Rijeka
L 0.40 created, 3.05 conceded against NK Varaždin
L 2.35 created, 1.16 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
D 0.94 created, 1.67 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 2.85 created, 0.30 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
L 1.19 created, 1.95 conceded against HNK Rijeka

GNK Dinamo Zagreb

2.26 xG created 0.54 xGA

W 2.53 created, 0.26 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 2.06 created, 0.74 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
D 0.82 created, 0.95 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W 2.64 created, 0.49 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
W 3.38 created, 0.39 conceded against NK Rudeš
W 2.10 created, 0.42 conceded against NK Varaždin

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Istra 1961: 1 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Istra 1961 against GNK Dinamo Zagreb before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
GNK Dinamo Zagreb not to score	8.00	+39.4%	Lost
GNK Dinamo Zagreb at most 1 goal	2.63	+32.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+22.7%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+18.6%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+12.7%	Won
NK Istra 1961 to win	6.00	+11.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Istra 1961	18.6%	15.0%	+3.6 pp	5.38
Draw	28.9%	23.0%	+5.9 pp	3.46
GNK Dinamo Zagreb	52.5%	62.0%	−9.5 pp	1.90

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Istra 1961 to score	63.4%	58.9%	+4.5 pp	1.58
NK Istra 1961 not to score	36.6%	41.1%	−4.5 pp	2.73
GNK Dinamo Zagreb to score	82.6%	88.1%	−5.5 pp	1.21
GNK Dinamo Zagreb not to score	17.4%	11.9%	+5.5 pp	5.74
Both teams to score	54.1%	53.7%	+0.4 pp	1.85
Both teams not to score	45.9%	46.3%	−0.4 pp	2.18
NK Istra 1961 2+ goals	23.4%	23.4%	−0.0 pp	4.28
NK Istra 1961 at most 1 goal	76.6%	76.6%	+0.0 pp	1.30
GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals	49.6%	64.5%	−14.9 pp	2.02
GNK Dinamo Zagreb at most 1 goal	50.4%	35.5%	+14.9 pp	1.98
Over 1.5 goals	76.3%	81.1%	−4.8 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.7%	18.9%	+4.8 pp	4.22
Over 2.5 goals	47.8%	59.9%	−12.2 pp	2.09
Under 2.5 goals	52.2%	40.1%	+12.2 pp	1.91

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Istra 1961 sample: 20 matches
GNK Dinamo Zagreb sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.