HNK Rijeka 3:2 NK Istra 1961: xG & match report · HNL

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · HNL

HNK Rijeka Home 1.95 xG · 15 shots

NK Istra 1961 Away 1.19 xG · 10 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

HNK Rijeka were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was NK Istra 1961's attack: 1.19 xG against 0.73 projected (+0.46). HNK Rijeka produced 1.95 xG against 1.68 projected (+0.27).

Goals

18' Mohamed Nasraoui (o.g.) HNK Rijeka · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
43' Jakov Puljić HNK Rijeka · 0.47 xG chance 2–0
53' Toni Fruk HNK Rijeka · 0.03 xG chance 3–0
71' Hamza Jaganjac NK Istra 1961 · 0.23 xG chance 3–1
90' Emil Frederiksen NK Istra 1961 · 0.22 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

HNK Rijeka: 60% What happened
Draw: 27%
NK Istra 1961: 13%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

HNK Rijeka 1.68 1.95 +0.27

NK Istra 1961 0.73 1.19 +0.46

NK Istra 1961 produced 0.46 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

HNK Rijeka NK Istra 1961

Shots: 15; 10
On target: 9; 3
Inside the box: 8; 7
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.08
Open play xG: 1.06; 0.69
Set-piece xG: 0.54; 0.07
Penalties: 1; 0

HNK Rijeka's shots add up to 2.42 xG and NK Istra 1961's to 0.76; the published figures are 1.95 and 1.19.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 3.18 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

HNK Rijeka
NK Istra 1961
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

HNK Rijeka

1.52 xG created 0.66 xGA

W 2.13 created, 0.33 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W 2.01 created, 0.27 conceded against HNK Vukovar 1991
D 0.55 created, 1.17 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 1.40 created, 0.14 conceded against HNK Gorica
W 2.33 created, 0.28 conceded against NK Rudeš
L 0.72 created, 1.75 conceded against NK Varaždin

NK Istra 1961

1.40 xG created 1.22 xGA

W 0.67 created, 0.57 conceded against NK Osijek
D 1.17 created, 0.55 conceded against HNK Rijeka
L 0.40 created, 3.05 conceded against NK Varaždin
L 2.35 created, 1.16 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
D 0.94 created, 1.67 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 2.85 created, 0.30 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

HNK Rijeka: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on HNK Rijeka against NK Istra 1961 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	+19.8%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+14.5%	Lost
Draw	4.10	+11.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HNK Rijeka	59.7%	64.2%	−4.5 pp	1.67
Draw	27.2%	21.9%	+5.3 pp	3.67
NK Istra 1961	13.1%	13.8%	−0.8 pp	7.65

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	47.6%	50.0%	−2.4 pp	2.10
Both teams not to score	52.4%	50.0%	+2.4 pp	1.91
Over 1.5 goals	73.6%	78.3%	−4.7 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.4%	21.7%	+4.7 pp	3.78
Over 2.5 goals	44.3%	56.3%	−12.1 pp	2.26
Under 2.5 goals	55.7%	43.7%	+12.1 pp	1.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
HNK Rijeka sample: 20 matches
NK Istra 1961 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.