Cercle Brugge 0:3 KAA Gent: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 13:30

Full time

Match report · Jupiler Pro League

Cercle Brugge Home 0.49 xG · 9 shots

KAA Gent Away 1.22 xG · 10 shots

03 The scoreline reflected the chances

Cercle Brugge were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. KAA Gent won 3–0. The biggest difference was Cercle Brugge's attack: 0.49 xG against 1.60 projected (−1.11).

Goals

21' Emmanuel Kakou (o.g.) KAA Gent · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
77' Tibe De Vlieger (pen.) KAA Gent · 0.82 xG chance 0–2
90' El Hadji Seck KAA Gent · 0.11 xG chance 0–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Cercle Brugge: 44%
Draw: 29%
KAA Gent: 27% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Cercle Brugge 1.60 0.49 -1.11

KAA Gent 1.24 1.22 -0.02

Cercle Brugge produced 1.11 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Cercle Brugge KAA Gent

Shots: 9; 10
On target: 1; 4
Inside the box: 7; 6
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.21; 0.43
Set-piece xG: 0.28; 0.08
Penalties: 0; 1

KAA Gent's shots add up to 1.33 xG; the published figure is 1.22.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

19 shots · 1.82 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Cercle Brugge
KAA Gent
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Cercle Brugge

1.95 xG created 1.86 xGA

L 2.54 created, 1.52 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
L 1.52 created, 1.55 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
D 1.47 created, 2.60 conceded against Standard Liège
D 4.15 created, 2.04 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
L 0.76 created, 1.83 conceded against Club Brugge KV
L 1.25 created, 1.63 conceded against Lommel SK

KAA Gent

1.43 xG created 1.01 xGA

L 1.42 created, 2.91 conceded against Club Brugge KV
D 2.48 created, 1.09 conceded against KRC Genk
W 1.16 created, 0.34 conceded against KV Mechelen
W 1.18 created, 0.54 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
W 1.38 created, 0.65 conceded against Club Brugge KV
W 0.98 created, 0.52 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Cercle Brugge: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Cercle Brugge against KAA Gent before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Cercle Brugge to win	2.75	+20.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Cercle Brugge	43.9%	33.0%	+10.9 pp	2.28
Draw	28.9%	26.7%	+2.2 pp	3.46
KAA Gent	27.1%	40.3%	−13.2 pp	3.68

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.6%	58.9%	+3.7 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.4%	41.1%	−3.7 pp	2.67
Over 1.5 goals	81.7%	76.6%	+5.1 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	18.3%	23.4%	−5.1 pp	5.45
Over 2.5 goals	55.7%	54.6%	+1.1 pp	1.80
Under 2.5 goals	44.3%	45.4%	−1.1 pp	2.26

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Cercle Brugge sample: 20 matches
KAA Gent sample: 20 matches
Computed: 22 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 22 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.