Cercle Brugge 0:1 Lommel SK: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:45

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Match report · Jupiler Pro League

Cercle Brugge Home 1.25 xG · 19 shots

Lommel SK Away 1.63 xG · 13 shots

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Cercle Brugge were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. Lommel SK won 1–0. The biggest difference was Cercle Brugge's attack: 1.25 xG against 2.13 projected (−0.88). Lommel SK produced 1.63 xG against 1.07 projected (+0.56).

Goals

61' Tom Reyners Lommel SK · 0.72 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Cercle Brugge: 61%
Draw: 23%
Lommel SK: 15% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Cercle Brugge 2.13 1.25 -0.88

Lommel SK 1.07 1.63 +0.56

Cercle Brugge produced 0.88 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Cercle Brugge Lommel SK

Shots: 19; 13
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 13; 9
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.88; 1.32
Set-piece xG: 0.36; 0.30
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.25 for Cercle Brugge and 1.64 for Lommel SK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 2.86 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Cercle Brugge
Lommel SK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Cercle Brugge

1.87 xG created 1.68 xGA

W 0.76 created, 0.55 conceded against FCV Dender
L 2.54 created, 1.52 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
L 1.52 created, 1.55 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
D 1.47 created, 2.60 conceded against Standard Liège
D 4.15 created, 2.04 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
L 0.76 created, 1.83 conceded against Club Brugge KV

Lommel SK

1.06 xG created 1.30 xGA

D 1.49 created, 1.98 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
L 0.34 created, 1.25 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
W 1.34 created, 0.66 conceded against KVC Westerlo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Cercle Brugge against Lommel SK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+1.9%	Lost
Draw	4.33	+0.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Cercle Brugge	61.5%	60.2%	+1.3 pp	1.63
Draw	23.2%	21.3%	+1.9 pp	4.31
Lommel SK	15.3%	18.5%	−3.2 pp	6.54

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Cercle Brugge to score	90.1%	88.1%	+2.0 pp	1.11
Cercle Brugge not to score	9.9%	11.9%	−2.0 pp	10.08
Lommel SK to score	68.6%	64.5%	+4.1 pp	1.46
Lommel SK not to score	31.4%	35.5%	−4.1 pp	3.19
Both teams to score	63.1%	57.7%	+5.4 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.9%	42.3%	−5.4 pp	2.71
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals	65.1%	62.5%	+2.6 pp	1.53
Cercle Brugge at most 1 goal	34.9%	37.5%	−2.6 pp	2.87
Lommel SK 2+ goals	29.1%	29.1%	−0.0 pp	3.44
Lommel SK at most 1 goal	70.9%	70.9%	+0.0 pp	1.41
Over 1.5 goals	86.4%	83.0%	+3.4 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	13.6%	17.0%	−3.4 pp	7.36
Over 2.5 goals	64.0%	64.5%	−0.5 pp	1.56
Under 2.5 goals	36.0%	35.5%	+0.5 pp	2.78

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Cercle Brugge sample: 20 matches
Lommel SK sample: 3 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Lommel SK has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.