Lommel SK 4:0 KVC Westerlo: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Jupiler Pro League

Lommel SK Home 1.34 xG · 13 shots

KVC Westerlo Away 0.66 xG · 17 shots

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

KVC Westerlo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. Lommel SK won 4–0. The biggest difference was KVC Westerlo's attack: 0.66 xG against 1.43 projected (−0.77).

Goals

30' Tom Reyners Lommel SK · 0.23 xG chance 1–0
45' Lucas Schoofs Lommel SK · 0.25 xG chance 2–0
51' Don-Angelo Konadu Lommel SK · 0.32 xG chance 3–0
89' Tom Reyners Lommel SK · 0.07 xG chance 4–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lommel SK: 35% What happened
Draw: 29%
KVC Westerlo: 35%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lommel SK 1.43 1.34 -0.09

KVC Westerlo 1.43 0.66 -0.77

KVC Westerlo produced 0.77 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lommel SK KVC Westerlo

Shots: 13; 17
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 8; 11
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.04
Open play xG: 0.63; 0.52
Set-piece xG: 0.71; 0.12
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.66 for KVC Westerlo.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 1.98 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Lommel SK
KVC Westerlo
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lommel SK

0.92 xG created 1.62 xGA

D 1.49 created, 1.98 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
L 0.34 created, 1.25 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi

KVC Westerlo

1.01 xG created 2.13 xGA

L 1.73 created, 1.28 conceded against KRC Genk
W 0.97 created, 0.82 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
L 1.34 created, 2.57 conceded against Standard Liège
L 0.43 created, 2.10 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
L 0.76 created, 1.79 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
L 0.85 created, 4.24 conceded against KRC Genk

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lommel SK against KVC Westerlo before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+2.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lommel SK	35.3%	36.3%	−1.0 pp	2.83
Draw	29.3%	27.5%	+1.9 pp	3.41
KVC Westerlo	35.4%	36.3%	−0.9 pp	2.83

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.4%	57.7%	+5.7 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.6%	42.3%	−5.7 pp	2.73
Over 1.5 goals	81.8%	78.3%	+3.5 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	18.2%	21.7%	−3.5 pp	5.49
Over 2.5 goals	55.9%	55.3%	+0.7 pp	1.79
Under 2.5 goals	44.1%	44.7%	−0.7 pp	2.27

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lommel SK sample: 2 matches
KVC Westerlo sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Warnings

Lommel SK has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.