RAAL La Louvière 2:2 KV Mechelen: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Jupiler Pro League

RAAL La Louvière Home 2.17 xG · 14 shots

KV Mechelen Away 2.11 xG · 16 shots

22 The chances were evenly matched

RAAL La Louvière were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was KV Mechelen's attack: 2.11 xG against 0.90 projected (+1.21). RAAL La Louvière produced 2.17 xG against 1.29 projected (+0.88).

Goals

6' Myron Van Brederode KV Mechelen · 0.20 xG chance 0–1
13' Elias Filet RAAL La Louvière · 0.14 xG chance 1–1
45' Mustapha Isah RAAL La Louvière · 0.91 xG chance 2–1
47' Adeshina Ayodele KV Mechelen · 0.36 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

RAAL La Louvière: 44%
Draw: 33% What happened
KV Mechelen: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

RAAL La Louvière 1.29 2.17 +0.88

KV Mechelen 0.90 2.11 +1.21

KV Mechelen produced 1.21 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

RAAL La Louvière KV Mechelen

Shots: 14; 16
On target: 5; 7
Inside the box: 10; 13
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.14
Open play xG: 1.90; 1.62
Set-piece xG: 0.27; 0.62
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.27 for KV Mechelen.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 4.41 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

RAAL La Louvière
KV Mechelen
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RAAL La Louvière

1.01 xG created 1.71 xGA

L 0.50 created, 1.88 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
L 1.67 created, 1.47 conceded against FCV Dender
W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against Cercle Brugge
L 0.74 created, 3.05 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
L 0.54 created, 1.18 conceded against KAA Gent
L 1.07 created, 1.15 conceded against Standard Liège

KV Mechelen

0.96 xG created 1.40 xGA

D 1.16 created, 0.94 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
D 0.83 created, 1.69 conceded against Club Brugge KV
L 0.42 created, 1.52 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
L 0.34 created, 1.16 conceded against KAA Gent
D 2.75 created, 1.64 conceded against Standard Liège
L 0.23 created, 1.44 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

RAAL La Louvière: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on RAAL La Louvière against KV Mechelen before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
KV Mechelen at most 1 goal	1.36	+5.9%	Lost
Draw	3.20	+5.6%	Won
KV Mechelen not to score	2.75	+3.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.67	+3.5%	Lost
RAAL La Louvière to win	2.30	+1.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RAAL La Louvière	43.9%	39.7%	+4.2 pp	2.28
Draw	33.0%	28.5%	+4.5 pp	3.03
KV Mechelen	23.1%	31.8%	−8.7 pp	4.33

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RAAL La Louvière to score	75.2%	72.3%	+2.9 pp	1.33
RAAL La Louvière not to score	24.8%	27.7%	−2.9 pp	4.04
KV Mechelen to score	62.3%	66.3%	−4.0 pp	1.61
KV Mechelen not to score	37.7%	33.7%	+4.0 pp	2.65
Both teams to score	48.8%	50.0%	−1.2 pp	2.05
Both teams not to score	51.2%	50.0%	+1.2 pp	1.95
RAAL La Louvière 2+ goals	37.8%	37.5%	+0.3 pp	2.64
RAAL La Louvière at most 1 goal	62.2%	62.5%	−0.3 pp	1.61
KV Mechelen 2+ goals	22.4%	31.3%	−8.9 pp	4.47
KV Mechelen at most 1 goal	77.6%	68.7%	+8.9 pp	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	68.6%	69.2%	−0.6 pp	1.46
Under 1.5 goals	31.4%	30.8%	+0.6 pp	3.19
Over 2.5 goals	37.9%	44.3%	−6.3 pp	2.64
Under 2.5 goals	62.1%	55.7%	+6.3 pp	1.61

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
RAAL La Louvière sample: 20 matches
KV Mechelen sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.